2025 MLB Trade Deadline: Key Players to Watch

Introduction: A Market of Haves, Have-Nots, and Maybes

As the calendar turns to July, the All-Star festivities in Atlanta approach. The Major League Baseball landscape is sharpening into focus. It clearly delineates the buyers, the sellers, and the handful of teams whose looming decisions will define the trade market. The July 31 trade deadline, set for 6 p.m. ET, is no longer a distant checkpoint but an urgent reality for front offices across the league. In the American League, the AL East remains a tightly contested, multi-team dogfight. The AL Central has split into extremes. The dominant Detroit Tigers (54-34) are looking to add for a deep October run. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox (28-59) are already auditioning players for other contenders. The National League presents a similar picture. Powerhouses like the Los Angeles Dodgers (56-32) and Chicago Cubs (52-35) are plotting championship-level acquisitions. In contrast, the Colorado Rockies (20-67) are firmly focused on future seasons.

This clear stratification has created a fascinating and complex market, shaped by three critical forces. First, there is a distinct scarcity of high-end, controllable starting pitching. This reality has contenders growing increasingly desperate. It is driving acquisition costs to astronomical levels. Second, the market has already been impacted by a June blockbuster. This event sent superstar third baseman Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants. The move signaled that the Giants are “all in” on the 2025 season. At the same time, it thrust the Red Sox into a “tricky predicament.” This potentially transformed them from a bubble team into a key seller.

Finally, and most significantly, the entire market hinges on the Baltimore Orioles. After a deeply disappointing first half that has left them 11.5 games out of first place, the Orioles stand as the deadline’s great linchpin. Their roster is flush with valuable players on expiring contracts. Their decision will determine if they hold out hope or initiate a sell-off. This choice will either flood the market with much-needed talent or remove a significant number of chips from the board. It will fundamentally alter the trade deadline for everyone else. As front offices weigh these dynamics, a clear list of the most sought-after players has emerged. Each player has a unique profile of performance. They have different contract status and strategic value.

Player	Team	Position	2025 Salary	Contract Status (Free Agent Year)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins	RHP	$11.2M (AAV)	Controlled through 2027 (Club Option)
Luis Robert Jr.	Chicago White Sox	CF	$15M	Controlled through 2027 (Club Options)
Ryan McMahon	Colorado Rockies	3B	$12M	Controlled through 2027 (Player Opt-Out)
Josh Naylor	Arizona Diamondbacks	1B	$10.9M	2026
Ryan O’Hearn	Baltimore Orioles	1B	$8M	2026
Aroldis Chapman	Boston Red Sox	LHP	$10.75M	2026
Zach Eflin	Baltimore Orioles	RHP	$18M	2026
Cedric Mullins	Baltimore Orioles	CF	$8.73M	2026
Edward Cabrera	Miami Marlins	RHP	$1.95M	2029
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates	RHP	$54.5M (Remaining)	2029
Taylor Ward	Los Angeles Angels	OF	$7.825M	2027
Adolis García	Texas Rangers	OF	$14M (2-year deal)	2027
Kyle Finnegan	Washington Nationals	RHP	$6M	2026
Andrew Heaney	Pittsburgh Pirates	LHP	$5.25M	2026
Luis Urías	Athletics	IF	$1.1M	2026

Section 1: The Marquee Assets: Potential Pennant-Changers

The most impactful trades involve players who can single-handedly alter a team’s championship trajectory. This year’s class is led by a trio of high-variance talents. These talents offer high rewards. Their potential acquisitions are dominating conversations in front offices and among fans.

1.1 Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins: The Ultimate High-Risk, High-Reward Ace

No player embodies the complex calculus of the trade deadline more than Sandy Alcantara. He presents a fascinating paradox. The reigning 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner is having a disastrous 2025 season on paper. In his first 16 starts and 80.0 innings pitched since returning from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara has posted a jarring 6.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Yet, despite these ugly surface-level numbers, a comprehensive survey of over 40 MLB executives conducted by MLB.com named him “by far the most likely player to be traded” before the deadline. The reason for this apparent contradiction does not lie in his 2025 performance. Instead, it is due to his pedigree and, most importantly, his contract. Alcantara is signed to a five-year, $56 million deal that is very favorable to the team. The deal includes a club option for 2027. It gives an acquiring team multiple years of control. As one American League executive aptly noted, “Aces don’t become available often, particularly those with two years of club control”.

The market for Alcantara is driven by this long-term value. The Miami Marlins are unambiguous sellers. They have a clear, stated need for a “game-changing bat.” Their particular focus is on acquiring an MLB-ready shortstop to fill a void in their system. This has allowed them to set a high and specific asking price. The Chicago Cubs are desperate for rotation reinforcements after a string of injuries. They have emerged as a primary suitor. Their interest is significant and persistent. Bleacher Report suggested an “outrageous” trade proposal. It said the Cubs would need to part with a package of five prospects. This package includes their #3 and #4 ranked prospects. This would be to acquire both Alcantara and his talented teammate, Edward Cabrera. The Los Angeles Dodgers, perpetually in search of top-tier talent, are also reportedly “lurking” in the sweepstakes.

The intense pursuit of Alcantara reveals a sophisticated, long-term evaluation strategy employed by top-tier front offices. These teams are choosing to ignore the high-variance data from his post-surgery starts. This data is based on a small sample size. It can be erratic for any pitcher recovering from major elbow reconstruction. Instead, they are betting on the larger, more stable data set of his entire career. This career culminated in one of the most dominant pitching seasons of the modern era in 2022. The contract acts as a massive risk mitigator. If Alcantara returns to his Cy Young form, the acquiring team secures a cost-controlled ace for multiple pennant races. This is at a fraction of the cost of a top free agent. If he struggles to regain his elite status, the financial commitment is manageable and does not cripple the team’s payroll. This dynamic creates the ultimate “buy-low” scenario. It involves a player with a sky-high pedigree. The Marlins are astutely leveraging this by demanding a return based on his ceiling, not his current statistical floor.

1.2 Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox: The Enigmatic Five-Tool Talent

Much like Alcantara, Luis Robert Jr. represents another high-variance, high-reward asset, albeit for different reasons. The White Sox center fielder’s 2025 season has been a profound struggle at the plate, as he’s hitting just.185 with a.583 OPS through his first 249 at-bats. His trade value is further complicated by a recent trip to the injured list. He sustained a left hamstring strain, adding another layer of risk for potential suitors.

However, the upside remains immense and tantalizing. Even during his offensive slump, Robert Jr. continues to provide plus defense at a premium position and possesses elite, game-changing speed, evidenced by his 22 stolen bases. One analysis suggested a change of scenery. Moving to a contending team could be the catalyst to unlock his latent 30-homer, 30-steal, Gold Glove-caliber potential. The most critical factor driving his trade market is his contract. For an acquiring team, his deal is all upside. He is owed $15 million this season. There are two club options for 2026 and 2027 at $20 million each. This structure provides a team with elite potential without a massive long-term financial commitment.

The market has taken notice. ESPN analysts Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel gave Robert Jr. a 90% chance of being traded, the highest probability assigned to any player on their list. The White Sox are firmly in sell mode. They aim to acquire “young, controllable talent.” This strategy is meant to accelerate the next phase of their rebuild. This makes a trade almost inevitable. Some teams are seeking a long-term outfield solution. They desire superstar potential. Potential fits include the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.

A trade for Robert Jr. serves as a fascinating litmus test for the internal philosophical leanings of a front office. A purely data-driven, analytical department might be deterred by his poor 2025 performance data and his extensive injury history. In contrast, a more traditional, scouting-heavy department will see the five tools. These include the raw power, the blistering speed, and the defensive grace. They will also consider the team-friendly contract structure and view him as a prime bounce-back candidate. The team that ultimately acquires him will not be making a trade for a simple rental. They will want more than a temporary solution for the 2025 season. They will be acquiring a lottery ticket with a massive potential payout for 2026 and 2027. It is a calculated, multi-year gamble. They hope his immense talent will eventually translate into consistent production.

1.3 Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies: The Perfect Solution for a High-Profile Need

Ryan McMahon offers a different kind of value proposition. He is a stabilizing force at a key defensive position. He also possesses untapped offensive potential. He is widely regarded as an elite defensive third baseman, a skill that immediately raises the floor of any infield. Offensively, he has shown legitimate power. He has hit 12 home runs so far in 2025. However, this comes with a low batting average of .219. A deeper look at his underlying metrics reveals a more promising profile. He ranks in the top 10% of the league in both average exit velocity and walk percentage. This suggests his plate discipline and quality of contact are far better than his batting average indicates.

His contract makes him even more attractive. McMahon has signed a long-term deal at an extremely reasonable rate. He is owed $12 million in 2025. He will receive $16 million in both 2026 and 2027. The contract includes a player opt-out clause after that. This provides cost certainty at a premium position for years to come.

The market dynamics for McMahon are crystal clear. The Colorado Rockies, with one of the worst records in baseball, are one of the league’s few definitive sellers. On the other side of the equation, the New York Yankees have an urgent need for an “infield bat.” They want to upgrade a corner infield spot. This has led to a flurry of reports. The Yankees have “checked in” on McMahon’s availability on multiple occasions. This makes them the most logical and aggressive suitor. Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers have been mentioned as potential fits. The Minnesota Twins have also been considered.

The Yankees have a specific need. McMahon’s availability aligns directly and logically with this need. Thus, a trade feels almost like a foregone conclusion. This potential deal is poised to act as the benchmark for the entire infield market. The prospect package that the Rockies ultimately receive will establish the price point for other infielders. It concerns a cost-controlled, elite defensive third baseman with some offensive question marks. If the Yankees manage to land McMahon early, it could trigger a scramble among other contenders. Teams like the Twins desperately need a third baseman following Royce Lewis’s recurring injuries. They may secure the next-best option, potentially forcing them to overpay for lesser players. In essence, the McMahon-to-Yankees rumor represents the first and most important domino to fall in the infield market.

Section 2: The Premier Rentals: Half-Season Heroes

For teams looking for a short-term boost without a long-term commitment, the rental market is paramount. This year’s class is headlined by players on expiring contracts. These players are having excellent seasons. They are all but certain to be wearing new uniforms by August.

2.1 Josh Naylor, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: The Market’s Most Polished Bat

Josh Naylor has positioned himself as the premier offensive rental available. He is enjoying a stellar walk year, hitting a robust.303/.357/.471 with 10 home runs and 54 RBI for the Diamondbacks. His consistent production led to him being named the top position player most likely to be traded in the MLB.com executive survey. Naylor is a pending free agent, playing on a one-year, $10.9 million contract, making him a pure rental. His team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, are hovering around.500 and face a critical decision on their direction. For a bubble team like Arizona, trading a valuable expiring asset like Naylor is logical. Prospects can help them retool for the future. Many analysts expect them to make this move. As a potent “big corner-infield bat,” Naylor is a perfect fit for several contenders. The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers have been identified as teams needing an offensive impact. Most notably, the Boston Red Sox are explicitly in the market for a “run producer.” They need someone who can play first base or designated hitter. They have just traded away their franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers. This makes Naylor a prime and obvious target for their front office.

2.2 Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: The Breakout Bat on an Expiring Deal

In a similar vein to Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn is in the midst of a career-defining breakout season. The Orioles’ first baseman is slashing an impressive.294/.381/.853 with 11 home runs, demonstrating an ability to hit for both average and power. This production is coming on an affordable one-year contract worth $8 million. He is set to become a free agent after the season. This combination of high performance and rental status has elevated him to a top trade target. ESPN gives him an 85% chance of being dealt. O’Hearn’s fate is inextricably linked to the Orioles’ larger decision to sell. If they commit to a retool, he is their most valuable offensive trade chip. A powerful left-handed bat is highly sought after at the deadline. The Seattle Mariners are already recognized as a potential fit. Any contending team that needs a designated hitter will be interested in his services. Teams looking for a potent platoon bat against right-handed pitching will also be eager to acquire him. Online fan discussions show that Orioles supporters have grown attached to O’Hearn. However, there is a widespread understanding of the front office’s logic. They understand trading him at peak value for future assets makes sense.

2.3 Aroldis Chapman, RP, Boston Red Sox: The Hired-Gun Closer

The market for elite, high-leverage relief pitching is always intense, and this year, Aroldis Chapman is the top prize. The veteran closer has been nothing short of dominant for the Red Sox in 2025, posting a minuscule 1.29 ERA and an elite 0.77 WHIP. He has amassed 51 strikeouts in just 35 innings, showcasing that his swing-and-miss stuff remains overpowering. Chapman is the quintessential rental, playing on a one-year, $10.75 million contract before he hits free agency this winter. His team, the Red Sox, are a classic bubble team. If their play over the next few weeks pushes them toward selling, they will consider trading Chapman. He is their most obvious and valuable trade piece. He is capable of bringing back a solid prospect return. High-leverage, late-inning relievers are a perennial deadline commodity. Contenders want to shorten games and lock down wins. They will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Philadelphia Phillies have a clear and stated need for bullpen help. They stand out as a natural and logical fit.

2.4 The Orioles’ Dilemma: The Team That Will Define the Deadline

No single team holds more sway over the 2025 trade market than the Baltimore Orioles. They have been dubbed the “key to the Trade Deadline” for good reason. After a “disappointing” start that has left them 11.5 games behind in the AL East, league insiders agree that they are being forced into a seller’s position. One National League executive has already tabbed them as a club that “clearly need[s] to sell”. Their decision will not be a trickle. It will be a flood. They will unleash a wave of coveted talent onto the market.

Beyond the aforementioned Ryan O’Hearn, the Orioles possess a stable of valuable rental players that could reshape pennant races:

Zach Eflin, RHP: On the final year of his contract, Eflin is a prime trade candidate. His 5.95 ERA in 2025 is concerning on the surface, but his 4.21 expected ERA (xERA) and strong track record in previous seasons suggest he is a prime candidate for positive regression. A recent lower back strain clouds his immediate value. It also increases the pressure on Baltimore to get a return for him now. They cannot risk losing him for nothing.
Cedric Mullins, CF: Also on an expiring deal, Mullins offers Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field and elite speed. While he is struggling offensively with a.213 batting average, his defensive value alone makes him an attractive piece for a contender looking to upgrade their outfield. Like Eflin, his value is complicated by a recent hamstring strain.
Other Rentals: The list of potential trade chips is long and impactful. It includes starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano and veteran relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. All of them are on expiring contracts.

The situation in Baltimore is not a strategic choice made from a position of strength; it is a forced sale. The team entered the season hoping to find a “reason to buy” and make a push for the postseason. This dramatic shift from hopeful buyer to reluctant seller will have a significant ripple effect across the league. A large volume of quality players could hit the market in the final weeks of July. These players include starters, relievers, and position players. This sudden and massive influx of supply stands to depress prices across the board. This would be a huge benefit to buying teams. However, it would hurt other sellers. Teams like the Athletics or Pirates were hoping to capitalize on market scarcity to maximize their returns. The Orioles’ likely capitulation could change the market dramatically. What was shaping up to be a seller’s market might become a buyer’s paradise.

Section 3: The Controllable Pieces: Value Beyond 2025

While rentals offer a quick fix, the most valuable trade assets are often players with multiple years of team control. These players command the largest prospect packages because they represent long-term solutions, not just half-season patches.

3.1 Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins: The Affordable High-Ceiling Arm

If Sandy Alcantara is the high-risk, high-pedigree prize of the Marlins’ rotation, Edward Cabrera is the affordable, high-ceiling alternative. Cabrera has been excellent in 2025, posting a 3.41 ERA with an impressive 75 strikeouts in 71.1 innings pitched. He has electric, top-of-the-rotation skills. His fastball regularly touches 99 mph. He features a devastating, high-spin curveball that generates a high volume of swings and misses.

What truly elevates Cabrera’s value is his contract. He is the epitome of a controllable asset, earning just $1.95 million in 2025 and remaining under team control through the 2028 season via the arbitration process. This combination of performance, potential, and long-term affordability makes him one of the most valuable pitchers on the market. He is widely viewed as a less expensive but still highly impactful alternative to Alcantara. The Cubs have reportedly linked him in their trade discussions with the Marlins. This is often as part of a larger package deal. His modest salary and years of control make him an ideal fit for nearly any contender. He is especially perfect for those with payroll constraints looking to add a long-term rotation piece without breaking the bank.

3.2 Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: The Cost-Effective Innings-Eater

Mitch Keller has firmly established himself as a reliable, mid-rotation starting pitcher. For the struggling Pirates, he has been a consistent workhorse, posting a solid 3.64 ERA over 106.1 innings. However, his efforts have been rewarded with a poor 3-10 record. This record is more reflective of his team’s lack of run support than his own performance.

Keller’s trade value is significantly enhanced by his contract. He is signed to a very team-friendly extension that has $54.5 million remaining over the final three years of the deal. For a durable innings-eater, this is a below-market rate. The Pirates have confirmed they are in sell mode. They may trade anyone on their roster. The only exceptions are rookie phenom Paul Skenes and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. This situation has put Keller squarely on the trade block. The Chicago Cubs have reportedly been in discussions with Pittsburgh about a potential deal for over a week. Keller’s performance and affordable long-term contract increase his trade value. He is expected to command a significant return. A package headlined by one or two top-100 prospects will likely be required.

3.3 Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels: The Under-the-Radar Power Hitter

Flying somewhat under the radar is Angels outfielder Taylor Ward, who is quietly putting together a powerful season. He has already launched 20 home runs in the first half of the campaign. This performance puts him on pace to shatter his previous career highs. Advanced metrics confirm that this power surge is legitimate. He ranks in the 86th percentile of all MLB players in barrel percentage. This is a key indicator of high-quality contact. Ward’s value is bolstered because he has one more year of team control after 2025. This makes him more than just a rental. His team, the Los Angeles Angels, are in a precarious position as a bubble team without a clear direction. If they fall further out of the playoff race in the coming weeks, the team might trade Ward. He could become one of their most attractive assets. Trading him would be a logical decision. The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals need a power upgrade. They have been identified as potential fits.

3.4 Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers: The Postseason Hero with Power Potential

Adolis García, the hero of the Texas Rangers’ 2023 World Series run, finds himself in a curious position. He is having a down year by his standards, hitting just.232 with 10 home runs. However, he has a well-established track record of elite power. He hit 97 home runs between 2021 and 2023. His reputation for clutch performance makes him an intriguing trade candidate. He is signed to a two-year contract. He is under team control through the 2026 season. This gives an acquiring team multiple years to capture his upside. With the Rangers underperforming, they might capitalize on his name value. They have the opportunity to use his controllable years to retool their roster. ESPN has given him an 80% chance of being traded. This shows a strong belief around the league that Texas will look to move him.

In today’s MLB, front offices operate under the constraints of payrolls and luxury tax thresholds. Players like Cabrera, Keller, and Ward offer something more valuable than just on-field production. They offer cost certainty. A general manager who acquires Edward Cabrera will know his exact cost for the next three and a half seasons. This cost remains fixed and predictable. It is a mere $1.95 million in 2025. After that, there are predictable arbitration salaries. This provides a massive strategic advantage compared to the financial volatility and intense competition of the free-agent market. This situation enables the Pirates to demand a “bounty” for Keller. The Marlins can ask for a “substantial package” for their controllable arms. The trade is not just for the player himself. It is for the stable, predictable, and often below-market salary slot that he occupies for years to come. This factor dramatically increases his trade value.

Section 4: The Specialist Market: Bullpen Arms and Utility Players

Beyond the headline-grabbing stars, a robust market always exists for specialists who can fill specific roles for a contending team. This year, several high-leverage relievers and versatile position players are expected to be in high demand.

4.1 High-Leverage Relievers

Kyle Finnegan, RHP, Washington Nationals: Finnegan is a proven and reliable closer, having recorded 18 saves with a 2.45 ERA for the Nationals this season. He is playing on a one-year, $6 million contract. This makes him a classic rental for a contender looking to shorten games. It also helps bolster the back end of their bullpen. Teams with clear bullpen needs, such as the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, are logical destinations.
Dennis Santana, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Santana has been a revelation for the Pirates. The journeyman reliever is having a career year, posting a stellar 1.74 ERA. He comes with two additional years of club control. This makes him a highly attractive and affordable piece for any contender looking for more than just a two-month fix.

4.2 Versatile Infielders

Luis Urías, IF, Athletics: Luis Urías is playing for the rebuilding Athletics on a cheap one-year deal. He is a prime candidate to be moved. He is a solid utility infielder who can play multiple positions and provides a respectable bat against left-handed pitching. This versatility makes him an ideal and low-cost depth acquisition for a playoff-bound team looking to strengthen its bench.

The interplay between these available players and the specific needs of contending teams creates a complex matrix of potential trades. The most aggressive buyers will be looking to address their most glaring weaknesses by targeting the best available fits.

Contending Team	Primary Need	Potential Player Fits
New York Yankees	Infield Bat	Ryan McMahon, Luis Urías
Chicago Cubs	Starting Pitching	Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller, Tyler Anderson
Philadelphia Phillies	Bullpen Help	Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Finnegan, Dennis Santana
Los Angeles Dodgers	Starting Pitching	Sandy Alcantara, Andrew Heaney
Toronto Blue Jays	Starting Pitching	Edward Cabrera, Freddy Peralta
Houston Astros	Starting Pitching	Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson
Seattle Mariners	Corner Infield Bat	Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn

Conclusion: The Final Countdown

As the July 31 deadline looms, the market has clearly segmented into distinct tiers of available talent. At the top are the high-cost, controllable aces. Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera are among them. Their availability from the Marlins will tempt pitching-starved contenders like the Cubs. These teams may part with significant prospect capital. Alongside them are the enigmatic power bats, chief among them Luis Robert Jr., whose trade will represent a fascinating gamble on talent over recent production. The next tier includes reliable, high-performing rentals like Josh Naylor and Aroldis Chapman. They offer a guaranteed short-term boost for teams making a final push.

However, the entire landscape is poised to be reshaped by the pivotal decision facing the Baltimore Orioles. Their impending and likely fire sale threatens to flood the market with a plethora of starters, relievers, and position players. This could potentially create a buyer’s market in the final days. It might also depress the returns for other selling clubs.

The final countdown to the deadline will be driven by a few key narratives. The extreme demand and thin supply for starting pitching will likely force a team to pay a premium price. This will be for one of the Marlins’ arms. Such a transaction will set a new bar for pitching acquisitions. The New York Yankees have a clear and pressing need. They are overwhelmingly likely to address their infield situation. Colorado’s Ryan McMahon remains the most logical and impactful target. Ultimately, the final days leading up to July 31 will almost certainly see a frenzy of activity. This will be triggered by the Orioles’ official pivot to selling. This move will reshape multiple pennant races. It will also set the final board for the 2025 postseason.

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