The stage is set for a clash steeped in provincial pride and playoff history. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will renew their “Battle of Ontario” rivalry in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This happens for the first time in over two decades. In this first-round matchup, the Atlantic Division champion Maple Leafs face off against the Senators. The Senators are resurgent, having clawed their way into the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.  

Toronto carries the weight of expectations and recent playoff disappointments. The team looks to finally break through. Meanwhile, Ottawa is fueled by young talent and key veteran additions. They aim to prove their return to relevance is no fluke. This series promises intensity, skill, and a rekindling of one of Canada’s fiercest hockey rivalries. This preview breaks down the matchup. It analyzes each team’s path, key players, and critical matchups. It also discusses potential X-factors. These insights provide bettors and fans alike with the knowledge needed for this highly anticipated series.  

Toronto Maple Leafs: Atlantic Division Champions Seek Playoff Redemption

The Toronto Maple Leafs navigated the 2024-25 regular season under new head coach Craig Berube. They captured the Atlantic Division title. The team secured home-ice advantage for at least the first round. Finishing with around 100-102 points, they surpassed the century mark for the fourth consecutive season.  

Offensive Firepower and Defensive Adjustments: The Leafs are led by newly appointed captain Auston Matthews. He followed up a 69-goal campaign. The team possesses one of the league’s most potent offenses and ranks among the top scoring teams. William Nylander enjoyed a career year. He scored over 40 goals for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, Mitch Marner remained an elite playmaker. He just got to 100 points himself for the first time in his career. Veteran John Tavares provided significant secondary scoring. He bounced back from a down year and could potentially hit the 35-goal mark again. Auston Matthews just became the 6th fastest to 400 career goals. Only Wayne Gretzky, Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, Brett Hull, and Jari Kurri reached this milestone faster.

However, the narrative under Berube shifted towards defensive responsibility. The offseason additions aimed to add grit with rugged defenders Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. They were intended to bring stability and playoff experience to the blue line. The defensive focus might have slightly tempered the team’s offensive dominance compared to previous seasons. The aim was to build a more resilient team. This team would be capable of succeeding in the tighter checking of the playoffs. The underlying metrics sometimes showed the Leafs getting out-shot. They sometimes got out-chanced. The team relied on structure and goaltending rather than pure offensive zone dominance.  

Special Teams Conundrum: Special teams present a stark contrast. The power play remained elite. It was driven by Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares. This unit likely finished in the top 7 league-wide with an efficiency around 25-26%. However, the penalty kill was a persistent issue, ranking in the bottom half of the league (around 19th with ~77.8% efficiency) and struggling significantly down the stretch. Despite the additions of Tanev and Ekman-Larsson, the PK has not improved significantly. Opponents could still exploit the unit. This is a worrying trend heading into the postseason.  

Goaltending Question Marks: Joseph Woll emerged as the likely starter,to start the season, showing flashes of brilliance and composure. However, his injury history remains a significant concern. He missed time again this season. Last year, he was forced out of a crucial Game 7. Anthony Stolarz provided solid backup support, and missing time himself due to injury, having had an excellent previous season himself. Stolarz has proven himself to be the Game 1 starter for the series.

Ottawa Senators: Hungry Wild Card Team Ready for the Spotlight

The Ottawa Senators ended a playoff drought stretching back to 2017. They secured the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. They finished the season with approximately 90-94 points. Under second-year GM Steve Staios and first-year head coach Travis Green, the Sens demonstrated significant improvement after years of rebuilding.  

Ullmark Anchors Improvement: The cornerstone of Ottawa’s turnaround was the offseason acquisition of goaltender Linus Ullmark from Boston. The former Vezina winner provided the stability in net that Ottawa desperately needed. He significantly improved a defense that tied for the fifth-most goals against per game in 2023-24. Ullmark’s presence was expected to be a major factor in elevating the team’s performance and penalty kill. While questions lingered about his ability to handle a true No. 1 workload for the first time in his career , his impact was undeniable.  

Balanced Attack and Emerging Stars: Offensively, the Senators have a young core. Captain Brady Tkachuk leads them. His blend of skill, physicality, and high shot volume makes him a constant threat. Tim Stutzle, despite a slight regression from his 90-point breakout, remained a key offensive driver with point-per-game potential. Drake Batherson consistently provided secondary scoring. He set career highs. Veteran Claude Giroux continued to produce in the top six. The emergence of young players like Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig offered Ottawa improved offensive depth. The team added veteran scorer David Perron, boosting their depth compared to previous seasons. On defense, Jake Sanderson solidified his status as a legitimate franchise cornerstone. He took on more responsibility, including power-play duties, after Jakob Chychrun’s departure.  

Special Teams Turnaround: A major factor in Ottawa’s success was the dramatic improvement in their special teams. Both the power play and penalty kill improved significantly. They ranked near the bottom of the league in 2023-24, at 23rd and 29th respectively. Early season numbers showed the PP clicking at nearly 30% and the PK operating around 80%. Sanderson quarterbacked the top PP unit. Perron’s addition boosted the man advantage. Ullmark’s goaltending and improved team structure bolstered the penalty kill.  

Lingering Questions: Despite the progress, vulnerabilities remain. The Senators historically struggled with slow starts and consistency, sometimes blowing leads late in games. The health of key center Josh Norris, who has battled chronic shoulder injuries, is a major X-factor. Ullmark has never carried a heavy playoff workload. This lack of experience, along with the team’s overall lack of recent playoff experience, could be tested. They face a Maple Leafs team accustomed to the postseason grind. Even if that experience has often ended in disappointment, it remains a factor.  

Season Series Showdown: Lessons from the Regular Season

The 2024-25 regular-season series between these rivals was surprisingly one-sided. Ottawa swept all three meetings, outscoring Toronto by a combined 9-3 margin.  

• November 12, 2024 @ Toronto: Senators 3, Maple Leafs 0  
• January 25, 2025 @ Ottawa: Senators 2, Maple Leafs 1  
• March 15, 2025 @ Toronto: Senators 4, Maple Leafs 2  

Table: 2024-25 Regular Season Head-to-Head

Date	Location	Result	Winner
Nov 12, 24	Toronto	3-0	OTT
Jan 25, 25	Ottawa	2-1	OTT
Mar 15, 25	Toronto	4-2	OTT

Ottawa’s dominance in these games raises significant questions heading into the playoffs. The Senators effectively shut down Toronto’s high-powered offense, holding them to just three goals across three games. Ottawa’s team structure under Green was a challenge for the Leafs to solve. Ullmark’s (or potentially Forsberg’s) goaltending added another layer of complexity. Ottawa’s improved penalty kill likely neutralized Toronto’s power play in these specific matchups. Ottawa’s physicality may have played a role in dictating the terms of engagement.  

Does this regular-season sweep give Ottawa a psychological edge? Potentially. They know they can beat this Leafs team. The Maple Leafs might view the playoffs as a completely different season. They see it as a chance to erase the regular-season struggles against their rival. They can also lean on their (albeit painful) playoff experience. In the 2000-01 season, the Ottawa Senators and Maple Leafs played 5 times in the regular season. Ottawa won all 5 games. One of these victories was in overtime. This was also before the shootout was in the NHL. That year in the playoffs, the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs met in the first round. The Toronto Maple Leafs swept the Ottawa Senators with a 4-0 series win. This goes to show that regular season matchup results don’t necessarily transfer to playoff success against the same team.

Marquee Matchup: Clash of the Stars

This series features a wealth of high-end talent on both sides.

Toronto’s Elite Core: The Maple Leafs rely heavily on their “Core Four” forwards. These players are Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares. Matthews, despite perhaps not matching his record-setting 2023-24 output , remains arguably the league’s premier goal scorer. Nylander emerged as a dominant force, driving play and scoring consistently. Marner is the primary playmaker, facilitating offense for his linemates , while Tavares provides leadership and scoring depth. For Toronto to succeed, especially after being stifled in the regular season series , they need more than just Matthews. Nylander, Marner, and Tavares must find ways to generate offense against Ottawa’s top defensive pairings. These pairings will likely feature Jake Sanderson. They must also solve Linus Ullmark. The Leafs’ high-paid secondary stars need to exploit any potential depth mismatches. They also need to elevate their games beyond their regular-season contributions against Ottawa.  

Ottawa’s Dynamic Leaders: The Senators counter with their own formidable group. Brady Tkachuk is the engine, combining scoring touch with a relentless physical presence around the net. Tim Stutzle provides elite skill and playmaking ability from the center position. Jake Sanderson has rapidly developed. He is a top-pairing, two-way defenseman. He is capable of logging heavy minutes against top competition. Sanderson also contributes offensively. Veterans Claude Giroux and David Perron support this core. Emerging talents like Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Greig enhance the lineup. This combination gives Ottawa a more balanced attack than in previous years. Tkachuk’s ability to disrupt Toronto’s defense and create chaos in front of the net is crucial. Stutzle’s speed and skill break down defenses. Sanderson’s matchup against Toronto’s top lines will be vital.  

Marquee Matchup: The Goaltending Duel

The battle between the pipes could very well decide the series outcome.

Stolarz vs. Ullmark: This matchup presents a fascinating contrast. Anthony Stolarz offers high-end athleticism and potential, showing the ability to steal games and remain composed under pressure (“unflappable vibe”). However, his durability and lack of playoff games do cause some concern. Linus Ullmark brings a Vezina Trophy pedigree and provided Ottawa with stellar goaltending throughout the season. Yet, he lacks experience carrying the full burden of a No. 1 goalie through the grind of the NHL playoffs, having previously split duties in Boston.  In a very short sample size, 1 playoff game, Linus is 0-1 vs Toronto in the playoffs with a .912 save % and a 3.10 Goals Against Average. For his career Ullmark is 3-7 with an .887 save % and a 3.59 Goals Against Average in the playoffs. Stolarz only has 1 career playoff appearance. It was in relief last season, so his record in playoff games is 0-0 with a .842 save % and a 5.17 Goals Against Average.

Performance and Intangibles: Woll posted respectable numbers (approx. 2.72 GAA,.909 SV%) and showed good form late in the season. Ullmark was projected for around 27 wins and was instrumental in Ottawa’s defensive improvement and surge into the playoffs. The regular-season series saw Ottawa goalies significantly outperform Toronto’s. Mentally, Woll’s calmness is an asset, while Ullmark thrived in his new environment as the clear leader.  

Health, Workload, and Backups: The biggest question for Stolarz is can his regular season success carryover to the playoffs? Can he withstand the physical demands of a potentially long and intense series? For Ullmark, the question is stamina. Can he maintain his high level of play under a heavier workload than he’s accustomed to? Both teams possess capable backups. Joseph Woll was excellent for Toronto when called upon. He was also the reason the series against Boston went to 7 games last season. A last second save attempt in Game 6 caused an injury. This injury would make him miss Game 7. Anton Forsberg provides experienced depth for Ottawa, though he’s coming off a less impressive season.  

This goaltending duel pits Toronto’s high-upside, potentially fragile option against Ottawa’s high-floor, potentially workload-limited veteran. Stolarz has the raw talent to potentially steal the series if he stays healthy and finds his peak form. Ullmark offers greater consistency and reliability based on his recent track record. The team whose goaltender best navigates the physical and mental pressures of playoff hockey will gain a substantial advantage.

Marquee Matchup: Special Teams Battleground

Special teams often swing playoff series, and this matchup features intriguing dynamics.

Table: 2024-25 Special Teams Comparison (Projected/Approximate)

Team	PP% (NHL Rank)	PK% (NHL Rank)
Toronto Maple Leafs	~26.0% (~7th)	~77.8% (~19th)
Ottawa Senators	Improved (Top 15?)	Improved (~80%, Mid-Pack?)

Power Plays: Toronto boasts one of the league’s most dangerous power plays. It is loaded with elite talent. This talent is capable of breaking open a game. They were particularly lethal down the stretch. Ottawa’s power play saw marked improvement. It became a respectable unit potentially capable of capitalizing on opportunities. Sanderson aided on the point with Perron’s net-front skills.  

Penalty Kills: Here lies a potential key mismatch. Toronto’s penalty kill was a glaring weakness for much of the season, particularly late. While additions were made to address it , their ability to consistently get stops while shorthanded remains questionable. Ottawa’s penalty kill transformed from a liability into a solid unit, greatly aided by Ullmark’s performance and better structure. In the regular-season meetings, Ottawa’s special teams likely outperformed Toronto’s, given the lopsided results.  

Strategic Implications: Can Toronto’s high-octane power play solve Ottawa’s improved penalty kill? More critically, can Toronto’s struggling penalty kill withstand Ottawa’s power play? Discipline will be crucial, as taking penalties could be particularly costly for the Maple Leafs given their PK struggles. Ottawa, meanwhile, needs to avoid putting Toronto’s dangerous PP on the ice too often. The special teams battle leans slightly in Ottawa’s favor on paper due to Toronto’s PK woes.  

Beyond the Box Score: Potential X-Factors

Several factors beyond the primary matchups could influence this series:

• Injuries: The health of key players is paramount. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jake McCabe, & David Kampf all missed the last few games with injuries. Tanev also has an injury history. Matthews dealt with minor issues during the year. Jani Hakanpaa only played 2 games this season for Toronto. Max Pacioretty played 37 games for Toronto. Hakanpaa and Pacioretty were most likely kept out of the lineup due to Salary Cap issues. They have both been skating with the team recently. OEL, McCabe and Kampf are questionable still for the start of the series. For Ottawa, the status of Josh Norris is critical due to his recurring shoulder problems. His absence significantly impacts their center depth. It also affects their scoring potential.  
• Depth Scoring: Which team’s bottom six can provide timely goals? Toronto depends on experienced players. These include veterans like Tavares (potentially on L3), Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, and Max Pacioretty. However, their fourth line has faced criticism. Ottawa counters with Pinto, Greig, Perron, Mike Amadio, and Nick Cousins, offering a potentially deeper and more energetic bottom six.  
• Coaching Strategies: Craig Berube brings Stanley Cup-winning experience and a structured, demanding system to the Leafs’ bench. Travis Green, in his first year with Ottawa, successfully implemented changes that led to improvement. However, he lacks Berube’s playoff track record. In-series adjustments, line matching, and deployment decisions will be critical.  
• Playoff Experience & Pressure: This is a major intangible. Toronto’s core group has faced immense playoff pressure over eight consecutive appearances, mostly ending in heartbreak. Does this experience steel them, or does the weight of past failures become too much? Ottawa, conversely, is largely new to the playoff stage as a group. They may play with less fear (“hunger”), but could also be prone to mistakes under the heightened intensity (“inexperience”). The team that better manages the psychological swings of playoff hockey could gain a significant edge.  
• Physicality: The Senators, led by Tkachuk, play a hard-nosed style. Toronto attempted to counter this with offseason additions like Tanev, OEL, and retaining Ryan Reaves. How Toronto handles Ottawa’s forecheck and physical engagement, especially given the rivalry’s history of heated incidents , will be important.  

Echoes of the Past: A Brief History of the Battle

The current rosters bear little resemblance to those of two decades ago. However, the history of the Battle of Ontario adds undeniable spice to this matchup. The modern rivalry truly ignited after the 1998 realignment placed both teams in the Northeast Division.  

What followed was an unforgettable stretch from 2000 to 2004 where the teams met in the playoffs four times in five years :  

• 2000 Conference Quarterfinals: Maple Leafs win 4-2. This series followed Marian Hossa’s accidental high-stick on Bryan Berard in March that season.  
• 2001 Conference Quarterfinals: Maple Leafs win 4-0. A stunning sweep, as the second-seeded Senators were heavily favored over the seventh-seeded Leafs.  
• 2002 Conference Semifinals: Maple Leafs win 4-3. A hard-fought series remembered partly for Daniel Alfredsson’s controversial hit on Darcy Tucker in Game 5.  
• 2004 Conference Quarterfinals: Maple Leafs win 4-3. Toronto again prevailed in seven games, capping their playoff dominance over Ottawa. This series occurred in the same season. Alfredsson famously mocked Mats Sundin by faking a stick toss into the stands.  

Overall, Toronto holds a commanding 4-0 series lead and a 16-8 advantage in playoff games against Ottawa during that era. This history occurred 20 years ago. It forms the backdrop for this new chapter. This adds layers of narrative and fan intensity.  

Series Outlook and Prediction

This first-round series presents a compelling contrast. Toronto has elite offensive talent and playoff experience, scars and all. Ottawa counters with balanced scoring, Vezina-caliber goaltending, and youthful hunger.

The regular-season results cannot be ignored. Ottawa handled Toronto convincingly in all three meetings. They shut down their offense and found ways to win. This suggests Ottawa’s structure and goaltending match up well against the Leafs’ strengths. Furthermore, the special teams battle appears to favor the Senators, particularly Ottawa’s power play against Toronto’s vulnerable penalty kill.  

However, playoff hockey is a different beast. Toronto’s core players have faced this pressure cooker environment repeatedly. Can Matthews, Nylander, and Marner elevate their games and overcome the system that stifled them during the regular season? Will Berube’s coaching and the added defensive grit finally make a difference when it matters most?  

The goaltending duel between Stolarz and Ullmark is perhaps the biggest swing factor. If Stolarz plays to his potential, he could neutralize Ottawa’s edge. If Ullmark continues his stellar play and handles the workload, he gives Ottawa a significant advantage. Injuries, particularly to Woll or Norris, could dramatically alter the series trajectory.  

Ottawa’s regular-season dominance is difficult to overlook. They also have the potential edge on special teams. Toronto possesses the higher-end offensive talent. They have learned lessons from past failures. Ottawa appears to be catching them at the right time. They are playing with confidence and structure. The historical playoff record heavily favors Toronto, but current form and matchups suggest the tide may have turned.  

Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs in 6 games.

This prediction is based on a key observation. Regular season success against one team does not always carry over to the playoffs. Regular season success in matches against a team does not always translate into playoff victories. The Toronto Maple Leafs have the longest active streak of playoff appearances with it being 9 straight seasons. Now they only have 1 series victory in that time but something has to change. Ottawa will be entering the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons.

One thing for sure is this series will be a fun one to watch. Hopefully, some of the early 2000s atmosphere can come into this series as well.