Matthew Knies is having a breakout season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Knies had an impressive rookie campaign. He tallied 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points in 80 games. Now, Knies has elevated his game to another level. He finished the season with 36 goals and 36 assists. This gave him 72 points in 134 games. He surpassed his previous career-high in points. In the playoffs, he added another goal and 3 assists in 7 games. As a pending restricted free agent, contract extension talks reportedly gone cold. Everyone is wondering: What will his next contract look like?  

Knies’ current contract is a three-year entry-level deal signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 13, 2022. It includes a $277,500 signing bonus and $2,775,000 guaranteed, with an average annual salary of $925,000. In 2024-25, Knies will earn a base salary of $832,500. He will also receive a signing bonus of $92,500. His cap hit will be $925,000.  

Knies’ Performance and Potential

Knies has quickly become a fan favorite in Toronto. His physical presence and offensive capabilities have made him a valuable asset to the team. He’s a power forward who isn’t afraid to go to the net and battle for pucks. He has shown great chemistry with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line. He consistently generates scoring chances. He also contributes offensively.  

Knies’ 2023-24 rookie season was a mixed bag, as he displayed some promise while dealing with consistency issues. These problems are commonplace for first-year players, but Knies still had a productive introduction to the NHL. He played up and down the lineup but logged most of his minutes in the top six. He also suffered an upper-body injury that caused him to miss two games.  

Beyond his offensive production, Knies brings a unique skillset to the Maple Leafs. He plays a heavy game, leading all Leafs forwards with 169 hits last season. He’s also responsible defensively and has the potential to be a key contributor on both special teams units. In fact, people have compared him to Zach Hyman. Hyman is a former Leaf who was highly valued for his similar attributes. Hyman’s contributions to the team were significant.  

Knies’ strong work ethic and commitment to his craft suggest that he will continue to improve. He’s only 22 years old and has already shown significant progress in his development. With increased ice time and opportunity, his offensive production is expected to rise even further.  

Comparable Contracts

To get an idea of what Knies’ next contract might look like, we can examine similar deals in the NHL. These contracts have been signed by comparable players. Here are a few examples:

Player	Age	Contract	AAV	Notes
Dawson Mercer (New Jersey Devils)	23	3 years, $12 million	$4.0 million	Similar point production to Knies in his previous season.
Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles Kings)	21	5 years, $31.25 million	$6.25 million	A former 2nd overall pick with high expectations.
Trevor Zegras (Anaheim Ducks)	22	3 years, $17.25 million	$5.75 million	A highly skilled offensive player with a higher draft pedigree than Knies.
Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken)	21	7 years, $50 million	$7.14 million	A former 2nd overall pick and Calder Trophy winner.

These contracts show that young players with high potential and strong performance can command significant salaries. Knies’ contract will likely fall somewhere in this range, depending on the term and his continued development. Byfield and Zegras were higher draft picks than Knies. Mercer had a similar point production in his previous season. This context helps to understand the potential range for Knies’ next contract.

Maple Leafs Salary Cap Situation

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a projected cap hit of $90,248,843 for the 2024-25 season. Their current cap space is extremely limited, with only $663,230 remaining. However, the salary cap is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, reaching $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27, and $113.5 million in 2027-28. This will give the Maple Leafs more flexibility to sign Knies to a long-term deal.  

It’s important to note that the Maple Leafs have several key players who will need new contracts soon. These players include Mitch Marner and John Tavares. This could impact the amount of money they can offer Knies. Additionally, the Leafs do not have a first-round pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. This absence could limit their options for trades. It also affects roster flexibility.  

The Leafs also have a complex internal cap structure that could influence their approach to Knies’ contract. This structure is designed to maximize their spending during their contention window. It might make them hesitant to commit significant long-term dollars to a player who is still developing.  

Factors Influencing Negotiations

Several factors could influence Knies’ contract negotiations, including:

• Performance: Knies’ continued strong performance will increase his value and give him more leverage in negotiations.
• Team Needs: The Maple Leafs’ need for a power forward with Knies’ skillset will make him a priority signing.
• Salary Cap: The projected increase in the salary cap will give the Maple Leafs more room to maneuver.
• Comparable Contracts: Knies’ agent will likely use comparable contracts to argue for a higher salary.
• Term: The length of the contract will play a role in determining the AAV. A longer-term deal could result in a lower AAV, while a shorter-term deal could command a higher AAV.
• Qualifying Offer: The Leafs need to extend a qualifying offer to Knies to retain his rights as an RFA. This offer, calculated based on his previous season’s salary, will set a floor for his next contract.
• Offer Sheet Potential: Knies could receive an offer sheet from another team. An offer sheet is a contract offer made to a restricted free agent by another team. If Knies signs an offer sheet, the Leafs have the right to match it. However, if they choose not to, they may receive draft pick compensation from the other team. This possibility adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations.
• Matthews and Marner’s Contract Preferences: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are two of the Leafs’ highest-paid players. They have shown a preference for shorter-term contracts. This strategy aims to maximize their earnings with the rising salary cap. This trend could influence Knies’ preference for a similar contract structure.  
• Impact of Playing with Matthews and Marner: Knies has thrived alongside Matthews and Marner. However, there are questions about how he would perform without them. This uncertainty could be a factor in the Leafs’ willingness to offer a long-term deal with a high AAV.  
• Knies’ Bargaining Power: Knies has significant bargaining power due to his unique skillset and the Leafs’ lack of similar players. He fills a specific need for the team, and his strong performance has made him a valuable asset. This leverage could work in his favor during negotiations.  

Contract Scenarios

Based on the information above, here are a few different contract scenarios for Knies:

Scenario	Term	AAV	Pros for Knies	Cons for Knies	Pros for Leafs	Cons for Leafs
Bridge Deal	2-3 years	$2.5 – $4 million	– Allows him to prove his worth and potentially earn a bigger contract in a few years. – Provides him with financial security in the short term.	– May not maximize his earning potential in the long run. – Could result in another contract negotiation sooner.	– Keeps the cap hit low in the short term, allowing them to address other roster needs. – Reduces the risk of overpaying for a player who may not reach his full potential.	– Could result in Knies becoming more expensive if he continues to improve. – May lose Knies to another team if he excels on a bridge deal.
Long-Term Deal	5-8 years	$4.5 – $6.5 million	– Provides long-term financial security. – Allows him to focus on his development without worrying about contract negotiations.	– May not maximize his earning potential if he outperforms the contract. – Could be stuck with a team that doesn’t contend for a championship.	– Locks up a key player for the long term. – Could get Knies at a lower AAV than if they wait for him to become a star.	– Higher cap hit could limit their ability to sign other players. – Risk of overpaying for a player who may not reach his full potential.

Export to Sheets

Conclusion

Matthew Knies is a rising star for the Toronto Maple Leafs. His next contract will be a significant one for both the player and the team. Several factors could influence the negotiations. However, Knies will likely command a significant raise on his current deal.

The Leafs are dealing with a challenging cap situation. They have several key players to re-sign. Given this, a bridge deal might be the most likely scenario in the short term. This would allow them to keep Knies’ cap hit low. It also gives him the opportunity to further prove his worth. He could potentially earn an even bigger contract in a few years. However, the Leafs might be motivated to lock up Knies long-term before his value potentially increases further. Knies has a unique skillset. The team needs a power forward like him. These factors give Knies significant bargaining power in these negotiations.  

Ultimately, Knies’ next contract will have significant implications for his career and the Leafs’ future. A bridge deal could provide him with the motivation to excel and earn a larger contract down the line. A long-term deal would provide stability. It would allow him to focus on his development within the Leafs’ system. Regardless of the outcome, Knies is poised to be a key contributor for the Maple Leafs for years to come.