The 2025-26 National Hockey League season has reached a definitive crossroads for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The franchise has spent the better part of a decade as a perennial buyer. As the calendar turns to February 2026, the organizational mandate has undergone a significant strategic pivot. The team sits ten points outside of a direct Atlantic Division playoff spot. They are also seven points adrift of the final Wild Card position in the Eastern Conference. The front office is led by General Manager Brad Treliving. They are confronting a reality not seen in this market since the 2015-16 season.1 The team finds itself in a stagnant standings position. An upcoming Olympic roster freeze is looming. Additionally, there is a lack of high-end draft capital. This combination has necessitated a deep dive into the trade value of the current roster.3 This transition is a calculated effort to replenish the farm system. It is described as “quite bare.” The team is navigating a salary cap environment that remains highly restrictive for contending teams.4
Macro-Economic Context and the 2026 Salary Cap Architecture
Understanding the potential returns for Toronto’s assets requires a granular understanding of the league’s financial landscape. The 2025-26 salary cap is set at $95.5 million.6 While the ceiling has risen, the Maple Leafs remain anchored by their top-heavy salary structure. The club currently has approximately $94,746,865 committed to the active roster, leaving a negligible $126,905 in projectable cap space.5 This lack of flexibility is a primary driver for the current “sell-to-retool” strategy. Every dollar moved out must facilitate a direct prospect upgrade. Alternatively, it should help accumulate draft picks to navigate the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.3
Toronto Maple Leafs 2025-26 Cap Allocation Summary
| Category | Allocation Value | League Rank |
| Total Cap Allocations | $94,746,865 | 10th 5 |
| Active Roster Hit | $84,855,579 | 8th 7 |
| LTIR Pool Usage | $7,750,000 | 6th 7 |
| Retained Salary Slots | 0 / 3 | N/A 7 |
| Projected 2026-27 Cap Space | $25,710,000 | N/A 6 |
The organization is facing a $626,230 overage in performance bonuses from the previous season. This situation is primarily due to triggers met by Max Pacioretty.6 This further narrows the margin for error in any trade that involves bringing back salary. Consequently, the most viable trade candidates are those whose departures provide immediate cap relief and high-value “futures”.2
Tier 1 Assets: The Power-Forward Surge of Bobby McMann
The most discussed trade chip in the Maple Leafs’ current inventory is winger Bobby McMann.9 McMann is 29 years old. He has transitioned from a depth forward to a legitimate top-six power forward. This season, he has produced 19 goals and 13 assists through 56 games.4 His value is amplified by a highly efficient $1.35 million cap hit, a figure that is described as the most “team-friendly” contract among available deadline assets.4
The scouting report on McMann highlights a unique combination of 6-foot-2 size and high-end straight-line speed.4 This “size/speed package” makes him an ideal target for Stanley Cup contenders. These include teams like the Edmonton Oilers or the Dallas Stars. They are looking for north-south utility to complement their skill-heavy cores.12 Analysts have noted that McMann’s career trajectory is impressive. He was an undrafted player who worked his way up from the ECHL. His journey shares similarities with Zach Hyman. Some analysts suggest that McMann is reaching his peak value right now.1
Potential Returns and Market Comparison for Bobby McMann
| Variable | Projection / Comparable |
| Target Return | 1st Round Pick or High 2nd + Prospect 9 |
| Market Benchmark | Kiefer Sherwood (2x 2nd Round Picks + Cole Clayton) 4 |
| Salary Retention | Not required due to low AAV 4 |
| Primary Suitors | Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning 11 |
The decision to move McMann is viewed by league insiders as the ultimate “canary in the coal mine.” If Brad Treliving ships McMann out, it indicates a clear decision. This decision is to “cut bait” on the 2025-26 season to prioritize long-term sustainability.11 The return for McMann must reflect his status as a “luxury rental.” A second-round pick is considered the floor. However, the absence of middle-six power wingers in the 2026 market might increase the price. It could lead to a late 2026 first-round selection.9
Defensive Architecture and the Oliver Ekman-Larsson Value Proposition
The Maple Leafs’ blue line has become a primary source of trade speculation. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (OEL) has emerged as a premier trade chip.8 The 34-year-old defenseman is rejuvenated by a system that highlights his puck-moving abilities. He has recorded 34 points this season. This leads all Toronto blueliners in production.8 Unlike a standard rental, Ekman-Larsson is signed through the 2027-28 season at an extremely affordable $3.5 million AAV.6
His value is multifaceted. First, his contract is “extremely friendly” for a player producing top-pairing offensive numbers.8 Second, he carries a 16-team no-trade list. This list offers some protection but leaves enough contenders available to spark a bidding war.8 Third, his experience with the Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers adds significant value. It makes him a “difference maker” for teams entering a deep playoff run.8
Comparative Performance Metrics: Ekman-Larsson vs. The Field
| Player | Age | 5v5 Points | Total Points | Cap Hit |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 34 | 25 | 34 | $3,500,000 8 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 29 | 19 | 33 | $4,550,000 8 |
| Morgan Rielly | 31 | 24 | 31 | $7,500,000 15 |
If Rasmus Andersson was worth a first-round pick in the current market, then Ekman-Larsson should command an equivalent return. Analysts argue this point. This is due to his superior five-on-five production. He also has a more manageable cap hit.8 Potential returns for OEL include a 2026 first-round pick. Alternatively, he could be traded for a “serviceable young defender” in the mould of Zach Whitecloud. This might be combined with a mid-tier prospect to bolster Toronto’s future depth.8
High-Risk, High-Reward: The Morgan Rielly Paradox
The most complex trade discussion involves the longest-tenured member of the roster, Morgan Rielly.16 Rielly’s season has been defined by a sharp dichotomy. He remains offensively productive with 31 points in 54 games. However, his defensive metrics have cratered. This is highlighted by a minus-17 rating and a league-high 63 five-on-five goals against.15 He is currently in the fourth year of an eight-year, $60 million extension with a $7.5 million cap hit and a full no-movement clause (NMC).10
The “how” of a Rielly trade is significantly more difficult than the “why.” Any move requires Rielly to waive his NMC, and his decline in defensive-zone play makes his $7.5 million AAV a difficult sell for contenders.15 Some teams have significant cap space and need veteran leadership on the blue line. The San Jose Sharks have been floated as ideal partners.19
Potential Trade Structures for Morgan Rielly
A move to San Jose would likely be a “cap floor” acquisition for the Sharks. San Jose has only two defensemen signed for the 2026-27 season. They could take on Rielly’s full contract to help reach the rising salary cap floor.19 In this scenario, the return for Toronto might be modest. Perhaps it would be a second-round pick and a B-level prospect. The primary “gain” would be the $7.5 million in cap relief that would allow for a major offseason pursuit of a replacement like Darren Raddysh.18
Conversely, Nick Kypreos has suggested a more direct pursuit of Raddysh from the Tampa Bay Lightning.21 Raddysh is having an “astounding” season with 17 goals and 34 assists.22 He carries a minuscule $975,000 cap hit and is a Toronto native.21 The Maple Leafs would gain a “bomb of a shot” from the blue line by swapping Rielly for Raddysh. This trade could include salary retention or additional assets from Toronto. They have lacked such a shot for years.21
Defensive Depth and Recovery of Assets: Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit
The acquisition of Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins was intended to solidify Toronto’s top four. However, the move is increasingly viewed as one that has “backfired”.1 Carlo, a right-shot defensive specialist, carries a $3.485 million hit (after Boston’s 15% retention) through the 2026-27 season.6 Carlo has expressed a preference to remain in Toronto. His status as a “shutdown” veteran makes him an attractive target for the Edmonton Oilers. They are desperate to cut down on high-risk scoring chances against.24
Potential Return for Carlo: Toronto surrendered a first-round pick and prospect Fraser Minten to acquire Carlo.25 Recouping a similar value is unlikely. However, a high draft pick is a realistic expectation. It could be a second-rounder. Alternatively, a package involving a roster-ready fourth-liner and a mid-round pick is possible.1
Simon Benoit represents another “rugged” depth option. Carrying a $1.35 million cap hit through next season, Benoit is a logical candidate for a contending team looking for “playoff grit”.1 Obtaining a high mid-round draft pick, like a third or fourth round, would align with the market. This market focuses on specialized depth defenders.1
The Goaltending Market: Evaluating Anthony Stolarz
Toronto’s goaltending situation has stabilized around Joseph Woll and the surprising emergence of rookie Dennis Hildeby.28 Hildeby has posted a.912 save percentage in 14 games, making the veteran Anthony Stolarz potentially expendable.29 Stolarz has struggled with injuries and regression this season, rocking a 3.51 GAA.16 His $2.5 million cap hit rises to $3.75 million next season, making an early exit attractive for Toronto’s books.29
Potential Return for Stolarz: Due to his injury history and recent performance, Stolarz likely carries “late-round flyer” value. A conditional 2026 fourth or fifth-round pick is the probable return. However, a team in need of depth, such as the Carolina Hurricanes, might offer more. They are dealing with injuries to Pyotr Kochetkov. They may see him as a viable backup for the postseason.12
Identifying Buyers: Contender Needs and Asset Alignment
The 2026 deadline is defined by a clear divide between the “haves” and “have-nots” in the NHL standings.1 Several elite teams have specific holes that match Toronto’s surplus of middle-six forwards and experienced defensemen.
Market Matchmaking: Contender Needs in 2026
| Team | Current Ranking | Primary Need | Toronto Asset Fit |
| Colorado Avalanche | 1st | Depth Defense / Scoring Forward | Simon Benoit / Bobby McMann 12 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 2nd | Top-6 Forward / Right-Shot Defense | Bobby McMann / Brandon Carlo 12 |
| Dallas Stars | 3rd | Third-Line Wing / Physicality | Scott Laughton / Bobby McMann 12 |
| Minnesota Wild | 4th | Depth Center / Face-off specialist | Scott Laughton / David Kampf 12 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 15th | 2nd Pairing Defense / Depth Scoring | OEL / Bobby McMann 13 |
The Oilers, in particular, are under immense pressure to “get over the hump” after consecutive finals appearances.13 They have identified Boone Jenner as a top target. If they fail to secure him, Scott Laughton’s versatility becomes plan B. Alternatively, Bobby McMann’s size is also considered for plan B.10 The Oilers have three main needs—top-six wing, third-line center, second-pairing defence—all of which Toronto can theoretically supply.13
Target Returns: Scouting the Oilers’ Prospect Pool
The Maple Leafs and Oilers might engage in a major transaction. Toronto will likely target specific prospects. They aim to replenish their system. The Oilers have aggressively moved assets but still possess a few high-end “chips”.13
Potential Prospect Returns from Edmonton
- Matt Savoie (C/RW): Ranked as Edmonton’s #1 prospect. Despite his 5-foot-9 frame, he produced 54 points in 66 AHL games last season.30 He offers the high-end offensive skill that Toronto’s system lacks beyond the NHL roster.30
- Isaac Howard (LW): A Hobey Baker winner with Michigan State, Howard is an elite scorer. He is ready to push for an NHL role.30 He represents a high-upside replacement for a departing McMann.30
- Maxim Berezkin (RW/LW): A 6-foot-4, 211-pound power forward currently posting big numbers in the KHL (15 goals, 42 points).30 His physical profile matches the identity Craig Berube is trying to instill in Toronto.29
- Beau Akey (D): A mobile, two-way defenseman who could help rebuild Toronto’s aging defensive core.30
- Joshua Samanski (C): A 6-foot-5 German center who could fill the void left by a potential Scott Laughton trade.30
Draft Capital and the 2026 Prospect Landscape
The primary motivation for the “Going Down the Dumper Sale” is the accumulation of 2026 draft picks.31 Toronto’s cupboard is notably thin. They do not possess their own 2026 second-round pick (Chicago). Their first-rounder is top-5 protected to Boston.26 To truly retool, they must find a way back into the first round.
The 2026 draft is headlined by Gavin McKenna, a left winger from Penn State. He is viewed as a generational scoring talent.33 Toronto is unlikely to pick in the top three. However, the draft depth includes high-end defensemen like Keaton Verhoeff and Carson Carels. This makes acquiring multiple first and second-round selections a priority.26
Toronto Maple Leafs 2026/2027 Unresolved Draft Status
| Draft Year | Round | Status / Condition |
| 2026 | 1st | Held by Boston (Protected Top 5) 32 |
| 2026 | 2nd | Held by Chicago (Sam Lafferty/McCabe trade) 26 |
| 2026 | 4th | Held by Minnesota (Connor Dewar trade) 32 |
| 2026 | 6th | Held by Carolina (Cade Webber trade) 32 |
| 2027 | 1st | Held by Flyers (Scott Laughton trade) 32 |
The accumulation of “futures” in exchange for OEL and McMann would give Toronto flexibility in this draft. This way, they wouldn’t be completely handcuffed by previous trades.4
The Untouchables: Core Stability Amidst the Retool
Despite the seller designation, the Maple Leafs have a “small list” of untouchable players.35 Auston Matthews, having recently reaffirmed his commitment to the club through 2028, remains the “anchor.” He is the “face of the franchise.”10 Trading Matthews would be a “nuclear option.” Management is unwilling to consider this move. It would likely trigger a decade-long rebuild. Neither the fan base nor ownership would tolerate such a rebuild.2
William Nylander is similarly locked in as a building block.35 His contract extends through 2031-32, and his offensive consistency is viewed as essential for any quick retool. Matthew Knies has also graduated to “core” status.6 His physical play is impressive. At age 23, he is the ideal winger to grow alongside Matthews.5
Tactical Shift and the “Berube Factor”
The strategy of selling high on players like McMann and OEL shows a systemic shift. This shift reflects the approach under head coach Craig Berube. Berube has attempted to adapt Auston Matthews into a more “two-way forward,” focusing on structure and physical play.29 While this has suppressed some offensive numbers, it has clarified which players fit the “heavy” identity Berube desires.
Bobby McMann fits this style perfectly. That is why his potential trade is so bittersweet for the fan base. He is the exact type of player Berube wants. Yet, he is also the team’s most valuable movable asset.9 The organization must decide if the “two seconds” return for McMann is worth it. They need to consider the hole it leaves in the lineup’s identity.9
The Impact of the Olympic Roster Freeze
The 2026 deadline is complicated by the Milan-Cortina Olympics. This event triggers an NHL roster freeze from February 4 to February 22.1 This situation results in two distinct trade windows. The first is the “Mini-Deadline” leading up to February 4th. The second is the final “Sprint” from February 22nd to March 6th.1
Brad Treliving is expected to use the Olympic break to “garner and engage” with his players about what they’re worth.3 Transactions made before the break offer players time to acclimatize. They help handle logistics. This timing can often lead to slightly higher returns from buyers. These buyers want their new assets integrated before the final stretch run.1
The “Raddysh” Strategy: Offseason Vision
While the trade deadline is about moving assets out, the subsequent vision for the 2026 offseason is clear. Moving Rielly’s $7.5 million or OEL’s $3.5 million would provide the ammunition to pursue high-scoring defenders who can modernize Toronto’s blue line.8 Darren Raddysh is the primary target. His 77-point projected season makes him an ideal replacement for Rielly’s offensive minutes. His power-play prowess is available at a fraction of the cost.21
Darren Raddysh: The 2025-26 Statistical “Pinch-Me” Season
| Stat Category | Actual (48 GP) | Projected (73 GP) |
| Goals | 17 | 26 22 |
| Assists | 34 | 52 22 |
| Total Points | 51 | 77 22 |
| Power Play Points | 19 | 29 22 |
| Plus/Minus | +16 | +24 22 |
Toronto positions itself to be the primary suitor for Raddysh. This will happen by moving on from the “old guard” of the blue line at the deadline. They can achieve this when the free-agent market opens or through an offseason trade. The trade could use the picks acquired from McMann and OEL.18
Conclusion: Navigating the Reckoning
The Toronto Maple Leafs are entering a period of necessary recalibration. The decision to be sellers at the 2026 deadline is a pragmatist’s response to a roster that has grown stagnant. The club can use Bobby McMann’s peak value. They can also take advantage of the rejuvenated profile of Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Through these strategies, they can recoup the first and second-round selections they have hemorrhaged in previous years.4
The potential returns are significant. They could be high-end Oilers prospects like Matt Savoie. Or they could be a haul of 2026 draft picks. These represent the building blocks for the 2026-27 season. The path forward is fraught with risk. This is particularly true regarding the handling of Morgan Rielly’s legacy. It also involves finding a suitable replacement for his offensive production.15 Auston Matthews and William Nylander are committed for the long haul. If executed successfully, a “sell-to-retool” strategy at this deadline could keep Toronto’s window for contention open through the late 2020s.35 The next few weeks are crucial for Brad Treliving’s legacy in Toronto. This period will determine if this “reckoning” leads to a smarter championship contender. It may also lead to a more balanced team.8
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