Shane Bieber’s $16M Decision: A Game-Changer for Blue Jays

After the heartbreak of Game 7, the Jays were gifted an unexpected $100-million weapon. Here’s the exhaustive, step-by-step plan for Ross Atkins to use it and finish the job.

Introduction: The $16 Million Silver Lining

The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays are a memory seared into the consciousness of the city. It was a “magical” ¹ season. It was an “improbable” ² run that defied all preseason projections. These projections had given the team a mere 2.6% chance of winning the World Series.³ Instead, they took the best team in baseball to a “gutting” ⁴ Game 7 finale at Rogers Centre. Unfortunately, they suffered a “devastating” ² extra-inning loss.¹ The images of Miguel Rojas’s improbable game-tying home run ² remain vivid. Will Smith’s decisive blast ² also stands out. These moments left the Blue Jays “licking their wounds” ¹ to start the offseason.

The front office faced a rotation in “flux” ⁴, with veterans Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer heading to free agency.² Then, the offseason’s first shockwave hit. Shane Bieber, the former Cy Young winner acquired at the 2025 trade deadline ⁴, stunned the industry. Bieber was projected to land a nine-figure contract in the free-agent market. Instead, he exercised his $16-million player option to remain in Toronto for 2026.⁴

While some analysts called the move “super conservative” ⁸, its roots were personal. Bieber felt a deep connection with the clubhouse. He described them as “a really, really special group”. He added, “there’s a lot of love in this room”.⁴ He is betting on one full, healthy season post-Tommy John surgery. He believes this season, in a city he now embraces, will position him for an even larger payday. This opportunity comes as a 31-year-old in 2027.

For the Blue Jays, this decision is not just a “bargain” ⁸; it is a transformative strategic weapon. The front office had been prepared to spend $25-30 million or more in average annual value (AAV). They aimed to acquire a #2 or #3 starter. Bieber filled that void for a mere $16 million.¹⁰ That surplus—in both capital and front-office focus—can now be redeployed to solve the rest of the puzzle. This plan shows how to leverage that $16 million gift. It helps build a pitching staff capable of finishing the job.

Part 1: The New Bedrock: Assessing the 2026 Rotation (As It Stands)

Bieber’s decision solidifies the top four. However, a granular analysis reveals a clear window of contention. It also highlights significant underlying risks that must be addressed.

SP1: Kevin Gausman (RHP)

Performance: The staff’s “de facto ace” ¹², Gausman was the workhorse of the 2025 campaign, posting a 3.59 ERA over 193 innings.¹² He backed it up in the playoffs with a 2.55 ERA.¹²
Contract: Gausman is owed a $23 million salary in 2026.¹³
Strategic Implication: The 2026 season is the final year of Gausman’s five-year, $110 million contract.¹³ He will be a free agent in 2027. This, combined with George Springer’s contract also expiring ¹⁷ and Bieber’s one-year deal, unequivocally defines the Blue Jays’ championship window. 2026 is the “last dance” for this veteran core, mandating an aggressive, “win-now” offseason strategy.

SP2: José Berríos (RHP)

Performance: Berríos endured a deeply disappointing 2025. He finished with a 9-5 record, but his ERA swelled to 4.17 with a 1.30 WHIP over 166 innings.¹⁸ His peripherals were alarming, with a mediocre 19.8% strikeout rate and an 8.0% walk rate ¹⁹, ultimately leading to a demotion to the bullpen in September.¹⁸
The Injury: His season ended not with a whimper, but with a warning. He was shut down with “right elbow inflammation” ⁴ and missed the entire postseason run.⁹ MRIs showed “no structural damage” ¹⁸. He is expected to have a “normal offseason” ¹⁸. However, elbow inflammation in a pitcher with declining performance is a significant red flag.
Contract: Berríos will earn $19 million in 2026.¹⁴ Critically, his contract contains a player opt-out after the 2026 season.⁶
Strategic Implication: Berríos is the team’s single greatest “Known Unknown.” He is paid like a #2 starter but pitched like a #5 and carries significant injury risk. His opt-out ²⁷ creates a no-win situation for the club. If he pitches poorly, they are stuck with his back-loaded deal. If he pitches well, he will opt out and test free agency. Because Berríos cannot be reliably penciled in as a high-performance starter, Bieber’s presence is all the more vital. It also means the team must acquire a high-floor, reliable innings-eater for the SP5 slot. They cannot afford two major question marks in their rotation.

SP3: Shane Bieber (RHP)

Performance: The $16 million man.¹⁰ His 2025 return from Tommy John surgery was an unqualified success. In seven regular-season starts, he posted a 3.57 ERA over 40.1 innings.⁴
The Analytics: The underlying metrics were even more encouraging. His four-seam fastball velocity was back to his 2021 levels, averaging 92.6 MPH.⁷ His peripherals were elite: a 23.3% strikeout rate against a microscopic 4.4% walk rate.⁷ He then pitched 18.2 innings in the playoffs.⁹
Strategic Implication: While his total of 58.2 innings (regular and postseason) is a small sample size, the Blue Jays are making a $16 million bet. They believe the performance is sustainable over 180 innings. Bieber’s decision to opt in has allowed the team to avoid a bidding war for an inferior pitcher. They have secured a high-floor #3 starter who is already integrated into the clubhouse.⁴

SP4: Trey Yesavage (RHP)

Performance: The “rookie sensation” ⁴ provided a “sensational late-season boost” ⁴ that was critical to the 2025 playoff run. He will be paid the league minimum.³⁰
The Constraint: The front office has already signaled that Yesavage “may require some workload guardrails” in 2026.⁴
Strategic Implication: This is a critical planning constraint. Yesavage cannot be expected to pitch 180-200 innings. This creates a structural need for depth. The team will require a dedicated swingman to “piggyback” his starts. Alternatively, they must be prepared to use a six-man rotation. This places a significant burden on the SP6/long-relief role.

The Gaps: The Departures

Bieber’s opt-in directly fills the void left by Chris Bassitt, who is now a free agent.² Bassitt was a 170-inning workhorse (3.96 ERA, 1.327 WHIP) ² and, at 37 ³³, expressed an emotional desire to return, stating, “I love these guys”.³⁴ However, his projected contract of two years is valued at $46 million.³⁶ This makes him an unjustifiable luxury for a #5 spot. The failed half-season experiment with 41-year-old Max Scherzer (17 starts, 5.19 ERA) ³⁷ is also over.² Together, their departures leave a gap of ~260 innings and 48 starts that must be filled.

TABLE 1: The Blue Jays’ 2026 Rotation (Current Obligations)

This table shows the new financial reality. It also highlights the top-heavy investment. Additionally, it illustrates the specific contract-control windows that reinforce the 2026 “all-in” imperative.

Pitcher	2026 Role	2026 Salary	2026 Contract Status	Key Implication
Kevin Gausman	SP1 (Ace)	$23,000,000 ¹³	UFA after 2026 [13, 15]	The “Last Dance” Ace
José Berríos	SP2 (Volatile)	$19,000,000 ¹⁴	Player Opt-Out after 2026 [6, 27]	The High-Risk/High-Reward Injury Bet
Shane Bieber	SP3 (Anchor)	$16,000,000 ¹⁰	UFA after 2026 [7, 9]	The “Bargain” Enabler
Trey Yesavage	SP4 (Upside)	~$820,000 ³⁰	Pre-Arbitration	The “Workload Guardrail” Talent
SP5	OPEN	(TBD)	(TBD)	Must be a high-floor innings-eater
SP6/Depth	OPEN	(TBD)	(TBD)	Must protect Yesavage

Part 2: The Internal Candidates: The Tiedemann Solution & The Non-Tenders

Before entering the free-agent market, the front office must evaluate its internal assets. The most valuable is also the most fragile.

The Wild Card: Ricky Tiedemann (LHP)

The Status: Tiedemann is the organization’s consensus #1 pitching prospect ³⁹ and carries a 2026 MLB ETA.⁴⁰
The Problem: He is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in July 2024.⁴⁰ He missed the entire 2025 season. Furthermore, he has never thrown 80 innings in a professional season.⁴³ He has logged just 13 career innings at the Triple-A level.⁴³
The Scouting Report: When healthy, Tiedemann’s arsenal is electric. His fastball touches 98 mph ⁴⁰ and is complemented by a plus-plus changeup and a plus slider.⁴⁰ His primary weakness has been his 45-grade control.⁴⁰
The Strategic Solution: It would be organizational malpractice to pencil Tiedemann into the 2026 rotation. The physical risk is far too high, and his workload limits are too severe. He cannot be the SP5.

Instead, his 2026 role must be redefined: Tiedemann is the secret weapon for the 2026 bullpen.

The optimal path is to start him in Triple-A Buffalo to build up innings.⁴⁶ Around the All-Star break, he can be promoted to the majors and deployed as a multi-inning, high-leverage “Super Reliever.” Scouting reports have already noted his “rare physical gifts could make him an intriguing bullpen option”.⁴⁰ This role perfectly manages his innings. It unleashes his 98-mph fastball in short bursts. It also fills the team’s desperate need for a high-impact left-hander in the bullpen. He becomes the best “trade deadline acquisition” without costing a single prospect. Additionally, he can serve as the “piggyback” arm. This helps Yesavage navigate his workload guardrails.

The Depth Pieces (The Non-Tenders)

Eric Lauer (LHP/SP): Lauer served as a “swingman” ⁴ who helped “stabilize” the staff.⁴ He is arbitration-eligible and projected to earn between $4.4 million ⁶ and $5.3 million.³⁰ Bieber’s $16 million deal secures a rotation spot. There is no incentive to pay Lauer $5 million for a low-ceiling role. He will be non-tendered.

The internal options are now clear. Tiedemann is a future bullpen weapon, not a 2026 starter. The SP5 and SP6 spots must be filled externally.

Part 3: Fortifying the Rotation: One Trade, One Signing

The departures of Bassitt, Scherzer, Bo Bichette, and others leave a significant payroll gap.⁶ Bieber’s deal provides the clarity to use a portion of that aggressively. The primary goal is to acquire 150+ guaranteed innings for the SP5 slot. This will provide insurance for Berríos’s variance. It also covers Yesavage’s workload.

Avenue 1: Free Agency (The Obvious, Expensive Route)

The Blue Jays will not be shopping at the top of the market. They are not targeting pitchers like Dylan Cease ⁴⁸ or Framber Valdez.⁴⁸ The realistic targets are a tier below.

The Realistic Target: Michael King (RHP, ex-Padres)
King, 31 48, is an ideal target. Following a breakout 2024 (2.95 ERA in 173.2 IP, 7th in NL Cy Young voting) 51, his 2025 was limited to 15 starts and a 3.44 ERA due to injuries.52 He just declined his $15 million mutual option 51 to seek a multi-year deal.53 King is the perfect “Berríos insurance,” possessing a true #2 ceiling. His 2025 injuries may impact his market. The market might decrease from a $90 million projection 54 to a more palatable three-year, $60 million range.
The Fallback: Re-sign Chris Bassitt (RHP)
This is the known commodity. Bassitt loves the team 34 but will be 37 years old 33 and projects to command $23 million AAV.36 This is the safe, uninspired, and wrong move. Paying $23 million for a 37-year-old #5 starter is poor asset management. This is especially true with Berríos ($19M) and Bieber ($16M) already on the books. Bieber’s $16 million deal explicitly prevents this kind of overpay.

Avenue 2: The Trade Market (The “Atkins” Special)

This is the front office’s preferred lane. They use prospect depth to acquire a controllable, cost-effective starter. These starters come from a team that is selling.

The Prime Target: Joe Ryan. He is a right-handed pitcher for the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are in a “payroll-slashing” mode⁵⁵, and Ryan is a top trade candidate.⁵⁵ He was brilliant in 2025, posting a 3.42 ERA across 30 starts.⁵⁵ The contract is the key. Ryan is controllable through the 2027 season. He carries a projected 2026 arbitration salary of just $5.8 million.⁵⁶

This is the single-best move the Blue Jays can make. The team needs a high-floor, 170-inning starter for their #5 spot, and Ryan is precisely that. His $5.8 million salary ⁵⁶ is dramatically cheaper than King (projected $20M+ AAV) or Bassitt ($23M AAV).³⁶

This move saves ~$15-17 million in AAV compared to the free-agent route. These savings can be directly re-allocated to the bullpen. They can also be allocated to the fund to re-sign Bo Bichette. The Twins, known to be slashing payroll ⁵⁵ and in need of outfield help ⁵⁵, are a perfect trade partner. The Blue Jays can build a trade package around high-OBP, near-MLB-ready outfield prospects like RJ Schreck (Blue Jays’ #8 prospect,.914 OPS in Double-A,.392 OBP in Triple-A) ⁵⁷ and/or Yohendrick Pinango (Blue Jays’ #11 prospect, high-OBP, and Rule-5 eligible).⁵⁷

Acquiring Ryan for $5.8 million gives the Jays an elite, deep, and financially prudent rotation. It turns the Bieber bargain into a massive strategic victory. After this trade, the team can sign a veteran swingman. Candidates include Michael Lorenzen ⁵² or Alex Cobb ⁴⁸. They can be signed on a one-year, $5-8 million deal to serve as the SP6. This provides Yesavage’s “workload guardrails.”

Part 4: Reconstructing the Bullpen (The Real Priority)

The rotation, fixed per the plan above, is stable. The bullpen, however, is where the 2025 season was lost.

Current Locks (The Core)

Jeff Hoffman (RHP, “Closer”): Hoffman is under contract for two more years and $22 million.⁶ He held the closer’s role ⁵⁹ and amassed 33 saves ⁶⁰, but his 4.37 ERA ⁶⁰ is a massive red flag. Another issue is that he allowed 14 home runs ⁶⁰. Additionally, the front office’s lack of “complete trust” ⁵⁹ is concerning. This was all before he gave up the tying home run in World Series Game 7.⁵ His emotional quote—”I cost everybody in here a World Series ring” ⁵—is devastating.
Yariel Rodriguez (RHP, Setup): He was a revelation in 2025, thriving in a high-leverage role.⁶¹ His 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP ⁶² are impressive. A team-friendly contract through 2028 ⁶ makes him the lynchpin of the 7th and 8th innings.
Yimi Garcia (RHP, Setup): The reliable veteran is signed for $7.5 million in 2026.⁶ He remains a solid 7th-inning arm (3.86 ERA in 2025).⁶⁶

The Blue Jays cannot enter 2026 with Jeff Hoffman as their unquestioned closer. His $11 million AAV ⁵⁹ is a sunk cost. He must be demoted to a lower-leverage 7th-inning role, and the team must acquire true high-leverage arms.

The Gaps (The Departures)

Seranthony Dominguez (RHP): Now a free agent ⁶, Dominguez was arguably the team’s best reliever after the trade deadline. He posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with eight holds in 21 innings for Toronto.⁶⁸
Tim Mayza (LHP): The team’s primary left-handed reliever for years is also a free agent.⁴⁸
The Dregs: Mid-season releases like Chad Green ⁷¹ and Erik Swanson ⁷² are not the answer.

The Shopping List: A 3-Pronged Attack

Priority #1 (RHP): Re-sign Seranthony Dominguez.
Dominguez, 31 73, just posted a 3.16 ERA with a stellar 11.3 K/9 (79 strikeouts in 62.2 IP).73 He thrived in Toronto 68 and is the perfect 8th-inning bridge. A projected three-year, $30 million deal 30 is fair market value to lock down the setup role.
Priority #2 (LHP): Sign a High-Leverage Lefty.
The free-agent market for left-handed relievers is “thin on high-leverage arms” and consists mostly of “serviceable veterans”.74 The best target is Caleb Ferguson (LHP, ex-Dodgers). At 29, he is one of the youngest options. He specializes in limiting hard contact (99th percentile in average exit velocity).74 He is the perfect arm to replace Mayza. This signing will completely change the left side of the bullpen. The team will promote Ricky Tiedemann as a mid-season multi-inning power lefty. The bullpen will become much stronger.
Priority #3 (Closer): Find a New Closer (FA or Trade).
The team needs a new anchor.

FA Option (The Big Swing): Edwin Díaz (RHP, ex-Mets). He’s 32, expected to opt-out of his contract ⁷⁵, and will command $20M+ AAV.⁴⁹ This is the “all-in” move, but one the Blue Jays are unlikely to make given their other financial commitments.
FA Option (The Buy-Low): Ryan Helsley (RHP, ex-Mets). After an elite run, he struggled in 2025 (4.50 ERA) ⁷⁵ and is now a classic “buy-low opportunity” ⁷⁵ that this front office favors.
The Most Likely Play: A “closer by committee” approach. Re-sign Dominguez, sign a buy-low veteran like Helsley or Robert Suarez ⁴⁸, and pair them with Yariel Rodriguez. This is a cheaper, more flexible approach that creates internal competition and relegates Hoffman to a high-priced, low-leverage role.

Part 5: The Blueprint: A 3-Step Plan to Complete the 2026 Pitching Staff

This is the final, actionable plan that leverages the $16 million Bieber ¹⁰ gift into a championship-caliber staff.

STEP 1: Solidify the Rotation via Trade (The “Joe Ryan” Maneuver)

Action: Immediately engage the payroll-slashing Minnesota Twins ⁵⁵ on a trade for RHP Joe Ryan. Use the Blue Jays’ deep pool of outfield prospects (e.g., RJ Schreck ⁵⁷) to acquire Ryan’s two years of team control ⁵⁶ and his modest $5.8 million projected salary.⁵⁶
Result (The Rotation):

SP1: Gausman ($23M)
SP2: Berríos ($19M)
SP3: Bieber ($16M)
SP4: Yesavage (~$0.8M)
SP5: Joe Ryan (~$5.8M)
Financial Impact: A deep, reliable, high-upside rotation is secured for a total of ~$64.6 million. This is a major win, leaving $15-17 million in AAV on the table compared to the free-agent route.

STEP 2: Re-Build the High-Leverage Bullpen (The “Run It Back” Plus)

Action 1 (RHP): Re-sign free agent RHP Seranthony Dominguez ⁶ to a three-year, $30 million contract. He becomes the primary 8th-inning setup man.
Action 2 (LHP): Sign free agent LHP Caleb Ferguson ⁷⁴ to a two-year, $12 million contract. He becomes the primary left-handed specialist.
Action 3 (SP6): Sign veteran swingman RHP Michael Lorenzen ⁵² to a one-year, $7 million deal. He will act as the 6th starter, long-man, and provide the “workload guardrails” for Trey Yesavage.⁴

STEP 3: Deploy Internal Weapons Strategically (The “Tiedemann” Gambit)

Action: RHP Jeff Hoffman ⁵⁹ is demoted to a 7th-inning, $11 million “sunk cost” role. LHP Ricky Tiedemann ⁴⁰ is brought up mid-season as a multi-inning, high-octane reliever. He will “piggyback” Yesavage. Tiedemann will serve as a second elite left-handed weapon.
Result (The 2026 Bullpen):

Role	Primary Arm(s)	2026 AAV (Approx.)	Key Function
Closer	“Committee” (Dominguez / Rodriguez / New FA)	~$10M	High-Leverage / 9th Inning
Setup (RHP)	Seranthony Dominguez / Yariel Rodriguez	$10M / Contract	8th Inning / High-Leverage
Setup (LHP)	Caleb Ferguson / Ricky Tiedemann (Mid-Season)	$6M / League Min.	7th-8th Inning / LOOGY
Middle (RHP)	Jeff Hoffman / Yimi Garcia	$11M / $7.5M	6th-7th Inning / Sunk Cost
Long/Swing	Michael Lorenzen	$7M	SP6 / Innings Eater

Conclusion: From Heartbreak to Blueprint

Shane Bieber’s $16 million decision ⁴ was the first critical domino. It will define the Blue Jays franchise this offseason. It was a “bargain” ⁸ born from a player’s gratitude for a “special group”.⁴

That gift of cost certainty is not a victory in itself; it is a weapon. It provides the Blue Jays with the flexibility to avoid the sentimental overpay for an aging Chris Bassitt ³⁶. Instead, they can execute the ruthless, efficient trade for Joe Ryan.⁵⁵ It allows them to re-invest those significant savings to lock down the bullpen. They do this by re-signing Seranthony Dominguez ⁶⁸. They also strategically deploy their most exciting pitching prospect, Ricky Tiedemann, in a role built for success.⁴⁰

The 2025 run was a “surprise”.³ The 2026 season will carry the full weight of expectation. The front office, armed with the Bieber Bargain, now has a clear and actionable blueprint. They are ready to build a pitching staff that doesn’t just get to Game 7—it wins it.

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