Introduction: A Crossroads in Toronto

The 2025 offseason represents a watershed moment for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After securing a first-place finish in the Atlantic Division with 108 points, the season ended in a familiar pattern. It concluded with a painful playoff exit. This time, it was a seven-game series loss to the Florida Panthers. This result has served as a catalyst for what promises to be a transformative summer. The organizational mandate, articulated clearly by General Manager Brad Treliving, is to fundamentally alter the team’s “DNA.” The front office must reshape the roster. They are explicitly targeting players who embody “grit, scoring, leadership, and playoff experience.” This is not a minor tweak; it is a philosophical overhaul.  

Compounding this strategic pivot is the seismic roster shift caused by the near-certain departure of superstar winger Mitch Marner. As an unrestricted free agent, Marner’s exit will leave a significant void in the lineup. However, it will also grant the organization salary cap flexibility for the first time in years. With a projected cap space ranging from approximately $13.6 million to as much as $25.7 million, depending on final calculations and other moves, the Leafs have resources to allocate. However, this newfound space comes with immediate and pressing demands. The most notable is the need to sign cornerstone restricted free agent (RFA) Matthew Knies to a new contract. Additionally, they must resolve the future of veteran captain John Tavares.  

In this high-stakes environment of change and consequence, every contract and every roster spot is subject to intense scrutiny. The focus of this report is on two key members of the team’s forward depth: David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok. Together, they represent a combined $4.5 million commitment against the salary cap. As the Maple Leafs embark on their quest for a new identity, they must conduct a critical analysis. They need to determine if these two players are essential components of the future. Alternatively, their value might be best realized through trades. Such trades would further empower the team’s strategic realignment.

Section 1: The Anatomy of a Contender’s Bottom Six

For any NHL team aspiring to win the Stanley Cup, the bottom six forward group is critical. It is not just a collection of afterthoughts. It forms an essential part of a championship formula. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a financial architecture characterized by massive capital commitments to their elite talent. The efficiency and effectiveness of this group are paramount. With Auston Matthews commanding a $13.25 million average annual value (AAV) and William Nylander following closely at $11.5 million AAV, every dollar spent on depth players must bring tangible returns. The roster’s top-heavy structure requires this. The combined $4.5 million cap hit allocated to David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok is not insignificant. It is a substantial investment that must be justified by on-ice results. 

The value proposition for a depth player on a contending team is multifaceted. It extends beyond simply fulfilling a niche role, such as penalty killing or taking faceoffs. The fundamental requirement is that these players must not be a liability during 5-on-5 play. This aspect constitutes the vast majority of any game. At a minimum, they need to play their opposition to a draw. They must control the flow of play. They also need to prevent the team from being hemmed in its own zone. A bottom-six forward who consistently loses the possession battle weakens the team’s chances. Being on the ice for more goals against than for harms the efforts of the team’s high-end talent. It is through this lens of cost-effective, two-way competence that the contracts of Kampf and Jarnkrok must be evaluated.

Table 1: Player Contract Overview

Player	Cap Hit (AAV)	Total Value	Term Remaining	Expiry Status (UFA Age)	Trade Clause Details
David Kampf	$2,400,000	$9,600,000	2 Years (through 2026-27)	UFA at 32	10-team no-trade list (through 2025-26)
Calle Jarnkrok	$2,100,000	$8,400,000	1 Year (through 2025-26)	UFA at 34	10-team no-trade list

An immediate examination of these contractual obligations reveals a critical distinction. While the cap hits are comparable, the remaining term on David Kampf’s contract is a bigger strategic challenge. This contract extends further than others. His deal was signed by the current Treliving administration on June 28, 2023. It extends for two more seasons beyond the upcoming one. This locks in $2.4 million to a fourth-line role until 2027. This commitment creates long-term inflexibility for a team that must remain agile. Younger, cost-controlled prospects like Easton Cowan are pushing for NHL roster spots on entry-level contracts. Recent draft picks like Tinus Luc Koblar and Tyler Hopkins are also looking to secure spots. Having that cap space tied up in a veteran with a limited ceiling is a substantial opportunity cost. Furthermore, the Modified No-Trade Clause (M-NTC) restricts the Maple Leafs’ leverage by reducing the pool of potential trade partners. Kampf’s contract is not just a consideration for the 2025-26 season. It poses a structural impediment to roster evolution during the next two crucial seasons of Auston Matthews’ prime.  

Section 2: The Specialist: Deconstructing David Kampf’s Value ($2.4M AAV)

On paper, David Kampf’s role on the Toronto Maple Leafs is clearly defined. He is positioned as a prototypical fourth-line defensive center, tasked with the “dirty work” of the game. He is a specialist in the faceoff circle and a core member of the penalty-killing unit. His deployment patterns confirm this narrative; during the 2024-25 season, he started a minuscule 24.1% of his shifts in the offensive zone, one of the lowest rates on the team. Coaches send him over the boards with a singular mission: to defend.  

The Shutdown Myth: A Deep Dive into 5-on-5 Play

The central issue with Kampf’s value proposition is apparent. Despite his defensive deployment, the data shows a stark and troubling reality. He does not effectively “shut down” the opposition. In fact, the evidence is clear. When David Kampf is on the ice at 5-on-5, the Maple Leafs are consistently outplayed. The team loses control of the puck, shot attempts, and ultimately, goals. They cede control of the puck, shot attempts, and ultimately, goals.

His analytical profile from the 2024-25 season is damning. His Corsi For percentage (CF%) was just 45.7%. This metric measures the share of all shot attempts while a player is on the ice. It includes shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots, for and against. His Defensive Fenwick For percentage (DFF%), which is similar but excludes blocked shots, was 46.4%. Most critically, his Goals For percentage (GF%) was 47.2%. In simple terms, when Kampf was on the ice at even strength, the opponent controlled the puck. The opponent also outscored the Leafs.  

The problem is magnified when looking at his relative metrics. These metrics compare his performance to the team’s average when he is on the bench. His Relative CF% was −2.80 and his Relative DFF% was −3.50. This shows he is not just a passenger on a struggling line. In fact, he actively drags down the performance of his teammates. This trend is not new; his relative metrics were also deeply negative in the two preceding seasons. This consistent pattern led to being out-chanced and outscored at 5-on-5. It culminated in a near-disappearance from the lineup in the 2025 playoffs. His ice time diminished significantly. He was eventually made a healthy scratch. This move signaled a clear lack of trust from the coaching staff during crucial games.  

The Justification vs. Reality

The primary justifications for Kampf’s contract and roster spot are his specialized skills. He is indeed a reliable faceoff man, with a career win rate of 51.4% and a 51.2% mark in 2024-25. However, the strategic value of winning a defensive-zone faceoff is significantly diminished. This occurs when the line that wins it immediately loses possession. They then spend the next 45 seconds defending in their own end. His poor possession metrics suggest this scenario is commonplace.  

He is also a fixture on the penalty kill, logging significant shorthanded time on ice. Yet, the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill in 2024-25 ranked a decidedly mediocre 17th in the NHL at 77.9%. One must consider if his contribution to an average special teams unit is enough. It must be enough to counterbalance his significant weaknesses at even strength. Compounding these issues is his near-total lack of offensive contribution. With just 5 goals and 13 points in 59 games and a points-per-60-minutes rate of just 1.11, he is an offensive black hole.  

Contract Verdict

The conclusion from the data is unavoidable: the $2.4 million AAV on David Kampf’s contract represents a significant overpayment. His on-ice impact does not align with his cost. The fan and analyst debate surrounding his contract often centers on his perceived role versus his actual results. He is deployed as a defensive stopper. However, the team is demonstrably worse defensively when he is on the ice at 5-on-5. In essence, he is a center on the fourth line who can easily be replaced. His specialist skills do not provide enough value. They fail to justify the negative impact on the team’s ability to control play.  

Section 3: The Journeyman: Evaluating Calle Jarnkrok’s Versatility ($2.1M AAV)

Calle Jarnkrok represents a different archetype of depth forward. He is the quintessential “swiss-army knife,” a versatile journeyman valued for his ability to fill multiple roles within a lineup. He can play both center and wing. He can shift between the third and fourth lines as needed. He contributes to the penalty kill and provides secondary scoring. Occasionally, he features on the second power-play unit. His value is not rooted in a single elite skill but in his broad, flexible competency.  

The Concerning 2024-25 Season

On the surface, Jarnkrok’s 2024-25 campaign was alarming. His season was severely hampered by injuries. He suffered a significant hand injury and a sports hernia. The hernia required surgery. These injuries limited him to just 19 regular-season appearances. In this truncated sample size, his advanced statistical profile was shockingly poor. His  

CF% plummeted to 35.00, accompanied by a relative CF% of −10.70. These figures are not just bad. They are among the worst on the team. They are even more severe than those posted by David Kampf.  

Context is Key: The Bigger Picture

However, a responsible analysis requires placing these numbers in their proper context. A 19-game sample for a player battling significant injuries is not a reliable indicator of his true talent level. To properly evaluate Jarnkrok, one must consider his larger body of work with the Maple Leafs.

His track record tells a different story. In the 2022-23 season, he was a key secondary scorer. He potted 20 goals and finished with 39 points in 73 games. The following year, in 2023-24, he was on a similar pace with 10 goals in 52 games. An injury impacted his season before it could progress further. His underlying metrics during those healthier seasons were far more respectable. While not a possession-driver, he hovered near the team average, posting a Relative  

DFF% of -2.00 in his 20-goal campaign and a positive +0.70 in 2023-24. This history demonstrates that a healthy Calle Jarnkrok is a capable middle-six forward who can contribute 15-20 goals. His positional versatility gives the coaching staff critical lineup flexibility. This is an intangible but valuable asset that does not appear on a standard stat sheet.  

Contract Verdict

Entering the final year of his contract at a $2.1 million AAV, Calle Jarnkrok represents a potential value proposition for the Maple Leafs. Unlike Kampf’s multi-year commitment, Jarnkrok’s deal is a one-year affair that carries no long-term risk. If he can rebound from his injury-plagued season, he provides valuable depth scoring. Returning to his previous form will also offer flexibility at a very reasonable price. He is a low-risk, potentially moderate-reward player. His role is not that of a limited specialist. Instead, he is a competent and adaptable plug-in. This ability has intrinsic value for a team looking to retool its forward group.  

Table 2: 2024-25 Performance Snapshot

Metric	David Kampf	Calle Jarnkrok
Games Played (GP)	59	19
Goals (G)	5	1
Assists (A)	8	6
Points (P)	13	7
Time On Ice / Game (TOI/G)	12:24	13:14
Cap Hit (AAV)	$2,400,000	$2,100,000
Corsi For % (CF%)	45.7%	35.0%
Relative CF%	-2.80	-10.70
Goals For % (GF%)	47.2%	53.8%
Offensive Zone Start % (oZS%)	24.1%	32.4%

This direct comparison highlights the core arguments. Jarnkrok’s possession numbers in his small, injury-affected sample were worse than Kampf’s. However, his Goals For percentage was surprisingly positive. This suggests better finishing or goaltending luck during his minutes. The most telling contrast lies in their established roles and historical performance. Kampf is shown as a consistent 5-on-5 liability. In contrast, Jarnkrok is a historically competent contributor. His recent numbers demand contextualization.

Section 4: The General Manager’s Playbook: Pathways to Cap Flexibility

The performance and contract values of David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok are established. The focus shifts to the practical mechanisms available to the Maple Leafs’ front office. Moving either player is challenging. It involves navigating a complex trade market. Understanding contractual limitations is essential. Weighing the financial implications of alternative routes is also necessary. The market dynamics reveal that moving Kampf is an exercise in paying to create cap space. On the other hand, moving Jarnkrok helps in gaining a minor asset while achieving the same goal.

The Trade Market for a Defensive Center (Kampf)

Moving a player with David Kampf’s profile presents a significant challenge. A multi-year contract for a center with minimal offensive output is a tough sell in the modern NHL. His $2.4 million AAV through 2026-27 is a substantial hurdle. His 10-team no-trade list also reduces the pool of potential suitors. These factors diminish Toronto’s leverage.  

Potential trade partners would be limited to a specific subset of teams. These could include rebuilding clubs that need to reach the salary cap floor. These teams can afford to take on a veteran contract. Alternatively, they could be teams managed by executives. These executives still place a high value on old-school defensive specialists. They also value faceoff prowess. Identifying teams with a clear need for penalty-killing help or center depth would be the first step in gauging interest. However, the expected return for Kampf would be negligible. The primary objective of such a trade would not be asset acquisition but cap relief. To entice another team to absorb the full contract, the Maple Leafs would have to consider two options. They might retain up to 50% of his salary. Alternatively, they could attach a “sweetener,” like a mid-to-late-round draft pick or a lower-tier prospect. The market for bottom-six players shows that acquiring them often costs draft capital. Offloading a negative-value contract would logically require the same currency. It would simply flow in the opposite direction.  

The Trade Market for a Versatile Winger (Jarnkrok)

In stark contrast, Calle Jarnkrok is a much more marketable asset. As a one-year rental on a reasonable $2.1 million cap hit, he has a proven history of 15-20 goal scoring. He can play multiple positions. He fits the profile of a player frequently sought after by contending teams. His recent injury history somewhat depresses his value. However, his expiring contract reduces risks for another club that might acquire him.  

A trade in the offseason would likely target a team. This team aims to round out its middle-six forward group before training camp. The market for such players is robust, and the expected return would be a tangible asset. Recent comparable trades involved players like Mason Marchment or Erik Haula. In these cases, a mid-to-late round draft pick is a realistic and logical expectation. The pick would likely be in the 3rd to 5th round range.  

Alternative Routes: Buyouts and Waivers

Should the trade market prove fruitless, the Maple Leafs have other, less desirable, options. A contract buyout is one such path. For Kampf, a buyout would provide immediate cap savings in 2025-26 and 2026-27. However, it would result in a dead cap penalty extending for two years beyond that. For Jarnkrok, buying out the final year of his contract would yield a smaller saving in 2025-26. It would also cause a dead cap hit in 2026-27. This route is generally a last resort, as it trades a current problem for a future one.

The team could also place either player on waivers. Kampf’s multi-year contract makes it highly unlikely for another team to claim him. This would allow Toronto to assign him to the AHL and bury a portion of his salary cap hit. However, it is an inefficient solution. It leaves a significant dead-money charge on the books. This is similar to the situation with Ryan Reaves. Jarnkrok’s one-year deal makes him a more plausible waiver claim. This would lead to a clean removal of his cap hit.  

Table 3: Financial Implications of Potential Moves

Player	Action	2025-26 Cap Savings	Future Cap Penalties	Asset Cost/Return
David Kampf	Trade (Full Contract)	$2,400,000	None	Cost: Mid/Late Draft Pick
David Kampf	Trade (50% Retained)	$1,200,000	$1.2M dead cap in 26-27	Neutral / Minor Asset
David Kampf	Buyout	~$1,600,000	~$800k dead cap in 26-27, 27-28, 28-29	None
Calle Jarnkrok	Trade	$2,100,000	None	Return: Mid-Round Draft Pick
Calle Jarnkrok	Waiver Claim	$2,100,000	None	None

Note: Buyout calculations are estimates and can vary based on exact contract structure and timing.

This table crystallizes the strategic dilemma for the front office. Each pathway has distinct financial consequences and asset costs. The decision-making process involves weighing the immediate need for cap space against future penalties and the value of draft capital. It clearly illustrates that the most efficient path forward involves trading both players, but under very different terms of engagement.

Section 5: Final Verdict and Blueprint for the New-Look Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are examining their contracts, performance, and market value thoroughly. Through this analysis, the path forward regarding David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok becomes clearer. These decisions are not made in a vacuum. They are instrumental steps in a broader organizational strategy. This strategy aims to reallocate resources and reshape the roster’s identity. Ultimately, it seeks to build a team more capable of postseason success.

Recommendation for David Kampf: Addition by Subtraction

The verdict on David Kampf is unequivocal: the Maple Leafs must prioritize moving on from his contract. The data overwhelmingly demonstrates his negative impact at 5-on-5. This impact significantly drains the team’s ability to control play. His specialized skills in the faceoff circle and on a mediocre penalty-killing unit do not adequately offset this deficiency.

The primary objective of any transaction involving Kampf is to clear his $2.4 million cap hit for the next two seasons and to open a roster spot for a more effective player. The front office should approach this as a necessary cost of doing business. They must be ready to retain up to 50% of his salary. Alternatively, they can attach a late-round draft pick to facilitate a trade. Giving up an asset to move a player is never ideal. However, the long-term strategic flexibility gained by freeing up that cap space and roster spot is far more valuable. This outweighs the short-term asset cost. He is a player the team can win in spite of. They do not win because of him, and that is a luxury a top-heavy contender can no longer afford.

Recommendation for Calle Jarnkrok: A Valuable, But Expendable, Chip

The decision regarding Calle Jarnkrok is more nuanced. He is not a “must-move” player in the same vein as Kampf. His value is tied to his versatility and his potential to bounce back from an injury-riddled season.

The optimal scenario involves trading him. If a team is willing to offer a 3rd or 4th-round draft pick, the Maple Leafs should accept. They should do so without hesitation. The combination of $2.1 million in immediate cap relief and a tangible draft asset is a clear win for the organization. If the trade market proves to be soft, it may be due to his recent injuries. If that is the case, keeping Jarnkrok for the final year of his contract is wise. His age also makes it a prudent strategy. It is an acceptable fallback option. He could potentially contribute 15 goals. He also provides lineup flexibility. This could help mitigate the offensive losses from Marner’s departure. At a cost of just $2.1 million, he could provide significant surplus value if he returns to form.

Reinvesting the Savings: Building the New DNA

Clearing between $2.1 million and $4.5 million in salary cap space is not an end in itself; it is a means to a critical end. This newfound financial breathing room gives Brad Treliving the opportunity. He can start building a roster that reflects his vision.

The first and most pressing priority for this capital is securing the future of Matthew Knies. The young power forward is a restricted free agent and a crucial part of the team’s core moving forward. Moving Kampf and/or Jarnkrok creates cap space. This provides the necessary flexibility to sign Knies to the long-term extension he has earned.  

Secondly, the remaining space can be used in the unrestricted free agent market. This can target players who fit the new “grit and leadership” identity. The 2025 UFA class may be thin at the top end. However, there are valuable middle-six and bottom-six forwards available. These players can bring a different element to the team. Players like Brandon Tanev or Nick Bjugstad could potentially be signed. They could fill bottom-six roles at a more efficient price point than the players they would be replacing. 

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, clearing these roster spots creates pathways for the next wave of Maple Leafs talent. Promising prospects like Easton Cowan bring skill and tenacity. With an inexpensive entry-level contract, they can have a legitimate opportunity to make the team. They can have an impact. This infusion of youth, hunger, and cost-efficiency is the lifeblood of any successful salary-cap-era team.  

Moving on from established players like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok is not an indictment of them as individuals. In conclusion, it is a necessary and calculated strategic pivot. It focuses on the disciplined reallocation of resources from inefficient or redundant roles. The aim is to build a deeper, more resilient, and stylistically diverse roster. This roster would finally be equipped to translate its immense regular-season talent into sustained playoff victory.