1. Introduction: A Pivotal Offseason Hinges on a Rising Star

The Toronto Maple Leafs are, yet again, at a critical offseason juncture following the 2024-25 season. Familiar questions surround the team’s established core. However, a new, pressing priority has emerged: securing the future of 22-year-old power forward Matthew Knies. Knies is a restricted free agent (RFA). He is coming off a breakout campaign. He represents a key piece of the Maple Leafs’ evolving identity. His contract negotiation is more than a standalone transaction. It is a foundational decision. This decision will send ripples throughout the team’s roster construction. It will affect their salary cap strategy for years to come. This analysis will delve into the potential structures of Knies’s next contract. It will examine relevant comparable deals. The analysis will examine the significant impact of his signing. It will discuss how it affects the Leafs’ approach to other key free agents like Mitch Marner and John Tavares. This all occurs within the context of the 2025-26 NHL salary cap. 

2. Matthew Knies: The Ascending Power Forward Toronto Needs

Breakout Performance and Statistical Impact: During the 2024-25 season, Matthew Knies became a crucial player for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The young winger tallied an impressive 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 78 regular-season games. His strong play continued into the postseason, where he added 5 goals and 2 assists in 13 playoff contests.  

Beyond his scoring, Knies’s physicality is a defining characteristic. He delivered 182 hits during the 2024-25 campaign. He ranked second among Toronto forwards. This performance addressed a long-standing need for more physical play within the Leafs’ lineup. This robust style of play, combined with his offensive output, makes him a rare asset. Analytically, Knies also demonstrated significant value. He ranked 41st in the NHL in individual expected goals (ixG) with 28.7. This placed him fourth on the Maple Leafs. Notably, he was ahead of star winger Mitch Marner in this specific metric. His average time on ice (ATOI) significantly increased from 13:41 in 2023-24 to 18:31 in 2024-25. This change underscores the coaching staff’s growing trust and his expanded role on the team.  

Knies isn’t just another skilled forward for the Maple Leafs. He brings a unique combination of size (6’3”, 227 lbs), physicality, and net-front prowess. His complementary scoring is something the team’s historically skill-driven core has often lacked. This distinct skill set significantly enhances his intrinsic value to Toronto. It potentially goes beyond what raw point totals might suggest. This becomes evident when compared to players on other teams. The Maple Leafs have long faced criticism for lacking “sandpaper.” They also lacked an effective net-front presence, particularly in the demanding Stanley Cup Playoffs environment. Knies directly addresses this deficiency, with some observers noting he “fills a hole that has been lacking…since arguably Gary Roberts” and that “no one in the organization can fill what he brings.” His aggressive playing style drastically changes the team’s dynamic. His willingness to engage physically addresses a persistent strategic weakness. Consequently, his contract negotiations are not just about replacing 58 points. They focus on retaining a player who offers a different dimension to the team’s play. This understanding might drive the Maple Leafs to prioritize his signing. They could extend their valuation slightly higher. This extension exceeds what they might offer a similar player. Especially one with a more redundant skill set in their existing roster.  

Role and Value Proposition: Knies consistently played in a top-line role during the 2024-25 season. He frequently played alongside Auston Matthews. This placement speaks to his ability to complement elite offensive talents. His considerable frame makes him a formidable presence in front of the opposing net. This area is where the Maple Leafs have sought improvement. He is increasingly viewed as a modern power forward. His style of play draws comparisons to a young Chris Kreider. In a more contemporary sense, he resembles Zach Hyman for his blend of physicality and offensive contribution.  

Mutual Desire for a Future in Toronto: Maple Leafs supporters have encouraging news. Knies has publicly expressed a strong desire to stay in Toronto. The team’s management shares this sentiment. This commitment to his future is clear. At the players’ year-end media availabilities, Knies was unequivocal, stating, “I want to be here. I want to play here. That’s all that matters to me”. Maple Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving has echoed this sentiment. He has identified Knies’s contract as a top priority for the offseason. Treliving expressed a desire to complete the extension “as soon as possible”. Preliminary discussions regarding a new deal reportedly commenced around the NHL trade deadline, indicating proactive engagement from both parties.  

3. Decoding the Next Contract: Term, AAV, and Critical Comparables

The Central Tension: Bridge Deal vs. Long-Term Security The primary divergence in the negotiation appears to center on the length of the contract. The Maple Leafs are reportedly advocating for a long-term agreement. This would secure Knies through his prime development years. It would also offer the team cost certainty against a rising salary cap. Knies and his representation are considering a shorter “bridge” deal. This deal would likely span three to five years. This structure offers Knies a chance for a more lucrative contract in a few seasons. He can benefit if his performance keeps improving. This is especially true as league revenues and the salary cap are expected to rise. Some reports suggest Knies is targeting an average annual value (AAV) exceeding $7 million, even on a shorter-term pact. 

The Maple Leafs prefer a long-term deal. This choice may be influenced by General Manager Brad Treliving’s past experiences. Notably, during his tenure in Calgary, Matthew Tkachuk signed a bridge deal. This decision subsequently led to a challenging negotiation. It resulted in an eventual trade when Tkachuk’s value escalated significantly. Treliving will likely be keen to avoid a similar scenario. He does not want Knies to establish himself further. He aims to prevent Knies from gaining more leverage, such as arbitration rights, which he currently lacks. This could lead to Knies commanding a much higher price tag in a few years. While Knies is not Tkachuk, he is a highly valued young player whose stock is rising. A bridge contract now could lead to a more expensive negotiation later. The Leafs’ management would understandably wish to avoid this situation.  

AAV Projections: A Wide Spectrum Various projections exist for Knies’s potential AAV. AFP Analytics suggested a short-term, two-year deal could land around $4.2 million annually, whereas a long-term, seven-year contract might command an AAV closer to $7.25 million. Other analyses propose a five- to seven-year agreement in the $6.5 million range , or specifically $6.25 million to $6.75 million. For a more extended seven- to eight-year term, projections climb to the $7 million to $8.25 million AAV bracket. This variance underscores the significant impact that contract length will have on the final AAV.  

Table 1: Matthew Knies – Statistical Profile (2024-25 & Career NHL Highlights) To establish a baseline for Knies’s value, his recent performance is paramount:

Category	2024-25 Season (78 GP)	Career NHL (161 GP)
Goals (G)	29	44
Assists (A)	29	50
Points (Pts)	58	94
Plus/Minus (+/-)	+7	+17
PIM	43	90
Hits	182	353
TOI/Game	18:31	16:01
Shooting % (S%)	19.1%	16.2%
ixG (2024-25)	28.7 (per EvolvingHockey via )	N/A
PPG (2024-25)	5	5
GWG (2024-25)	6	9

Sources:  https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/player/matthew-knies-8482720 , https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2025/05/31/projecting-the-next-matthew-knies-contract-with-the-toronto-maple-leafs/ , https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kniesma01.html

This table highlights Knies’s breakout 2024-25 season, his notable physicality (hits), and his impressive scoring efficiency (high S%). The significant jump in TOI/Game also underscores his increased importance to the team.

In-Depth Comparable Player Contract Analysis: The 2025-26 NHL salary cap is projected to be $95.5 million. This figure is crucial for contextualizing historical comparable contracts. It helps in calculating the potential percentage of the cap Knies’s new deal might occupy.  

Knies’s offensive metrics are strong. Particularly, his individual expected goals (ixG) place him in the company of impactful forwards like Matt Boldy . However, a potential point of negotiation could be his overall defensive metrics. Reports indicate Knies ranked in the 39th percentile defensively according to Evolving-Hockey in 2024-25. In contrast, a comparable like Boldy was in the 96th percentile when he signed his extension. Knies performed adequately at even-strength defensively. Much of the negative impact stemmed from penalty kill duties. This broader defensive assessment could be leveraged by the Maple Leafs. It could help them temper AAV demands if Knies’s camp targets figures aligned with elite two-way forwards. Boldy’s $7 million AAV was backed by strong offense and elite defensive play. The Leafs might argue that Knies, while having a similar offensive profile, does not yet have the same defensive impact. Therefore, he might not warrant an identical AAV or cap percentage. This provides a data-supported position for the team during negotiations.  

Table 2: RFA Forward Comparables – Second Contract Analysis

Player	Team	Signing Year (Effective)	Age	Term	AAV	Cap at Signing	% of Cap	Pts in Platform Year (GP)	Gls in Platform Year	Key Attributes Noted
Matt Boldy	MIN	2023 (2023-24)	22	7	$7,000,000	$83.5M	8.38%	63 (81)	31	Strong two-way, high ixG
Clayton Keller	ARI	2019 (2020-21)	21	8	$7,150,000	$81.5M	8.77%	47 (82)	14	Draft pedigree, team’s top scorer
Tim Stützle	OTT	2022 (2023-24)	20	8	$8,350,000	$83.5M	10.00%	58 (79)	22	High potential, signed before big breakout
Dylan Cozens	BUF	2023 (2023-24)	22	7	$7,100,000	$83.5M	8.50%	68 (81)	31	Productive center
Cole Caufield	MTL	2023 (2023-24)	22	8	$7,850,000	$83.5M	9.40%	36 (46)	26	Elite goal-scorer
Lucas Raymond	DET	2024 (2024-25)	22	8	$8,075,000	$88.0M	9.18%	72 (82)	31	Strong offensive platform year
Seth Jarvis	CAR	2024 (2024-25)	22	8	$7,420,087*	$88.0M	8.43%*	67 (81)	33	Strong offensive year, deferred comp. (*cap hit)
Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	2021 (2021-22)	21	8	$7,750,000	$81.5M	9.51%	42 (55)	15	Power forward, high pick
Brady Tkachuk	OTT	2021 (2021-22)	22	7	$8,205,714*	$81.5M	10.07%*	36 (56)	17	Elite power forward, captaincy material (*cap hit)

Sources: Note: Seth Jarvis’s AAV is $7.9M, but his cap hit is $7,420,087 due to deferred compensation. Brady Tkachuk’s AAV is $8.214M, cap hit shown.  

Projected Range for Knies: Considering Knies’s 58-point season and impactful physical game, he is a valuable player. Factoring in his age and comparable contracts, a long-term deal (6-8 years) would likely position his AAV in the $6.75 million to $7.75 million range. This would represent approximately 7.07% to 8.11% of the projected $95.5 million salary cap for the 2025-26 season. If a shorter bridge deal is pursued, Knies’s representatives might aim for an AAV at the higher end. They might target slightly above $7 million. This would be a bet on his continued development and future earning potential. The ongoing RFA negotiations for Marco Rossi are a crucial real-time benchmark. Rossi posted similar 2024-25 numbers (60 points). His camp has reportedly rebuffed a 5-year, $25 million offer ($5M AAV). They are seeking a deal more aligned with players like Cozens or Boldy.  

4. Navigating the Cap: How Knies’s Deal Shapes Toronto’s Financial Landscape

Maple Leafs’ 2025-26 Salary Cap Outlook: The financial framework for the 2025-26 season sees a projected NHL Salary Cap. It is set at $95,500,000. Against this, the Maple Leafs currently have a projected cap hit of approximately $69.79 million allocated to 17 players (8 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies). This figure includes a $626,230 bonus overage from Max Pacioretty’s contract. It also considers a potential $100,000 buried cap hit for defenseman Matt Benning. This leaves the Maple Leafs with a projected cap space of roughly $25.71 million before accounting for Knies’s new contract or addressing other pending free agents.  

The Maple Leafs’ defense and goaltending units are “essentially set.” Players are already under contract for 2025-26, which is a significant factor. This arrangement offers stability on the back end and in net. However, it also implies that nearly all of the available ~$25.7 million in cap space must be dedicated to the forward group. This includes Knies. The unresolved situations with Mitch Marner and John Tavares need addressing. There are also new contracts for players like Pontus Holmberg and Nicholas Robertson. Additionally, any depth signings are considered. The lack of flexibility to reallocate funds from the defense or goaltending corps to the forwards is a significant issue. It intensifies the financial pressure on each forward negotiation. Every dollar committed to one forward directly reduces the pool available for others, making efficient and value-conscious deals paramount.  

Table 3: Toronto Maple Leafs – 2025-26 Projected Salary Cap Snapshot (Pre-Knies Extension)

Player	Position	2025-26 AAV	Contract Ends
Auston Matthews	C	$13,250,000	2028 (UFA)
William Nylander	RW/C	$11,500,000	2032 (UFA)
Morgan Rielly	LD	$7,500,000	2030 (UFA)
Jake McCabe	LD	$4,513,102	2030 (UFA)
Christopher Tanev	RD	$4,500,000	2030 (UFA)
Max Domi	C/LW	$3,750,000	2028 (UFA)
Joseph Woll	G	$3,666,667	2028 (RFA)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	LD	$3,500,000	2028 (UFA)
Brandon Carlo	RD	$3,485,000	2027 (UFA)
Anthony Stolarz	G	$2,500,000	2027 (UFA)
David Kampf	C/LW	$2,400,000	2027 (UFA)
Calle Jarnkrok	LW/RW	$2,100,000	2026 (UFA)
Scott Laughton	C/LW	$1,500,000	2026 (UFA)
Ryan Reaves	RW	$1,350,000	2026 (UFA)
Bobby McMann	LW	$1,350,000	2026 (UFA)
Simon Benoit	LD	$1,350,000	2027 (UFA)
Philippe Myers	RD	$850,000	2026 (UFA)
SUBTOTAL (17 Players)		~$69,790,999
Bonus Overage		$626,230
Buried Cap Hit (est.)		$100,000
TOTAL COMMITTED		~$70,517,229 (approx.)
Projected NHL Cap		$95,500,000
Projected Cap Space		~$24,982,771 (approx.)

Sources: https://www.puckpedia.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs . Note: Cap space adjusted for overages/buried hits based on text.  

Impact of Knies’s AAV Scenarios on Adjusted Cap Space:

• If Knies signs for $6.5M AAV: Remaining Cap Space ~$18.48M.
• If Knies signs for $7.0M AAV: Remaining Cap Space ~$17.98M.
• If Knies signs for $7.5M AAV: Remaining Cap Space ~$17.48M.

The Offer Sheet Question (and why it’s likely a non-factor): Matthew Knies is an RFA without arbitration rights. This status makes him technically vulnerable to an offer sheet from another NHL team. However, several factors make this scenario highly improbable. Knies has been vocal about his desire to remain a Maple Leaf. Furthermore, the substantial draft pick compensation is required for an offer sheet. Toronto wouldn’t immediately match this, which makes it a risky proposition for potential suitors. The 2025-26 offer sheet compensation tiers illustrate this. An AAV between $4,680,077 and $7,020,113 would require a first and a third-round pick. Meanwhile, an AAV between $7,020,114 and $9,360,153 would necessitate a first, a second, and a third-round pick. Given Knies’s importance to the team, the Maple Leafs would almost certainly match any offer sheet. They have the available cap space to do so.  

5. The Domino Effect: Knies, Marner, Tavares, and the Leafs’ Offseason Blueprint

The contract signed by Matthew Knies will inevitably set off a chain reaction. It will influence how the Maple Leafs approach their other significant offseason decisions. This is particularly true concerning the futures of UFAs Mitch Marner and John Tavares.

The Mitch Marner Elephant in the Room: Mitch Marner’s status as an unrestricted free agent is crucial this offseason. It is a major factor. It presents a significant consideration for the Maple Leafs. His free agent status will heavily influence their decisions. His status is a significant consideration. This is arguably the largest variable they face. His camp is reportedly seeking an AAV in the vicinity of $13 million. Marner’s willingness to re-sign with Toronto, and the financial terms he commands, will profoundly impact the team’s overall cap flexibility. There have been reports suggesting uncertainty from Marner’s side about a return. He has taken a negotiating stance that has been less than collaborative. One source indicates Marner is “likely to test free agency”.  

• Scenario A (Marner Re-signs at ~$13M AAV): If Knies secures a contract around $7 million AAV, the players would occupy about $20 million total. In combination, they would use a significant portion of the cap space. This is out of the Maple Leafs’ projected ~$25 million in cap space. The remaining budget would be extremely tight at around $5 million. This amount would need to cover re-signing John Tavares. It also involves addressing RFAs Pontus Holmberg and Nicholas Robertson. Additionally, they need to fill out the remaining 2-3 forward spots.
• Scenario B (Marner Departs): Marner’s departure would free up considerable cap space. The Leafs need to subtract a ~$7 million AAV for Knies from the initial ~$25 million space. This calculation would leave them with roughly $18 million. This sum would provide significantly more latitude to negotiate with Tavares. It would also allow them to potentially retool the forward group more broadly. They could pursue another high-impact player via free agency or trade. In this scenario, Knies’s role and offensive responsibilities within the team would also likely see a notable increase.

The decision on Marner’s future, if it comes before Knies signs, could subtly alter the leverage in Knies’s own negotiation. If Marner is definitively out, the Leafs will have more cap certainty. They will also have a clear vacancy for a top-six winger. This might incline them to meet Knies’s terms on a long-term deal. They might view him as an even more central figure in their offensive core. Knies’s agent might push for a contract at the upper end of projections due to this heightened importance. The financial clarity also empowers him during negotiations. Conversely, if Marner’s situation remains unresolved, the Leafs might exercise more caution with Knies’s AAV to maintain flexibility. They might press harder for a slightly lower number. Alternatively, they may consider a bridge deal if a long-term agreement proves elusive at their preferred price point.

The Future of John Tavares: John Tavares, the current team captain, is also an unrestricted free agent. At 34 years old , he is not expected to command his previous $11 million AAV. Tavares wants to stay with the Maple Leafs. He shares a strong connection with Knies. Tavares has served as a mentor to the young forward. The AAV of Tavares’s next contract will likely be influenced by the outcome of Marner’s situation. His own willingness to accept a team-friendly deal will also play a role. Accepting such a deal would be almost essential if Marner also returns on a high-value contract.  

Other Key RFAs/UFAs: Beyond the headliners, the Leafs must also address other pending free agents. Pontus Holmberg is an arbitration-eligible RFA. He is due a substantial raise from his previous $800,000 AAV. He has become a trusted player for the coaching staff. Nicholas Robertson, also an arbitration-eligible RFA, had a more tumultuous season. He reportedly requested a trade at one point. He was a healthy scratch during parts of the playoffs.  

Strategic Importance of the Knies Signing: Securing Knies, particularly on a long-term contract, is strategically vital. It would provide cost certainty for a key young player around whom the team can continue to build. Such a signing also sets an internal benchmark for other negotiations and signals the team’s future direction. If Marner departs, Knies’s role as a core offensive piece becomes even more critical.

The 2025-26 season is an Olympic year. This adds another layer of complexity to roster and cap management. Olympic participation typically leads to a condensed NHL schedule. This increases the physical toll on players. It also heightens the risk of injuries. Consequently, it becomes more of a strategic necessity to budget for a reliable 13th forward. Carrying an 8th defenseman or 3rd goaltender could also be necessary. The ~$25 million in cap space is not just for filling potentially five starting forward spots. This is contingent on Marner and Tavares departing. It is also for ensuring adequate depth across the roster. This further squeezes the AAV available per player. Thus, making efficient, value-driven contracts for players like Knies becomes even more crucial. 

6. Conclusion: Forging the Future – The Knies Contract as a Catalyst

Re-signing Matthew Knies is more than a simple roster transaction for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It represents a significant statement about the team’s future direction. The Leafs demonstrate their commitment to a player who brings a much-needed, and previously scarce, dimension to their lineup. His blend of size, skill, and physicality is a valuable commodity.

The ideal outcome for the Maple Leafs would be to secure Knies on a long-term contract. This would likely span six to eight years. Such a deal would provide crucial cost stability. It would ensure that a burgeoning power forward remains a cornerstone of the team. This would be through his prime developmental and productive years. Based on his performance and comparable contracts, an AAV in the range of $6.75 million to $7.75 million appears to be a realistic landing zone. This estimation depends on how both parties assess his current output and future potential. The market for similar RFAs, particularly Marco Rossi, will also influence this decision. This AAV would represent approximately 7.07% to 8.11% of the projected $95.5 million salary cap for 2025-26.

Knies’s camp might logically explore the benefits of a shorter bridge deal to maximize future earning power. The league has a rising salary cap. However, General Manager Brad Treliving’s past experiences, notably with Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary, suggest a strong organizational preference. The organization prefers to avoid such arrangements with core young players. The objective will be to lock in value now and prevent a more challenging negotiation scenario in a few years.  

The Matthew Knies signing is set to be the first major domino. It will fall in what promises to be a transformative offseason for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The terms of his extension will have a direct impact on the financial feasibility. This will affect retaining key UFAs like Mitch Marner and John Tavares. These terms will fundamentally shape the resources available to address other roster needs. The decisions made this summer, starting with resolving Knies’s contract, will determine the Maple Leafs’ competitive window. They will chart their strategic path as they continue their quest for sustained playoff success.