The Toronto Maple Leafs approach the 2025 off-season at a critical juncture. Following another playoff disappointment, the pressure is immense on General Manager Brad Treliving. The newly installed coaching staff, led by Craig Berube, must reshape the roster into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. This report examines potential trades. It also looks at free-agent acquisitions the Maple Leafs could explore. The analysis includes the team’s needs, available assets, and the challenging salary cap landscape.  

Part 1: Setting the Stage – The 2025 Off-Season Context

The 2024-25 season concluded with the Maple Leafs eliminated in the second round of the playoffs. A 6-1 Game 7 loss to the Florida Panthers served as a painful end. This outcome has intensified scrutiny on the team’s core and overall composition. The organization’s mandate is clear: build a team that is “tougher, heavier, and more competitive.” The team must be capable of wearing down opponents in the gruelling playoff environment. 

1.1. Current Salary Cap Situation

As of the latest projections for the 2024-25 season, the Maple Leafs are over the NHL Cap Limit of $88,000,000. They have a projected cap space deficit of approximately $-2,692,049. Their projected cap hit stands at $90,692,049. The team currently has 22 players on its active roster and 47 standard contracts, nearing the 50-contract limit.  

Looking ahead to the 2025-26 season, the NHL salary cap is projected to rise to $95,500,000. Based on players currently under contract for that season, the Maple Leafs have a projected cap hit of $68,640,999. This leaves a more substantial projected cap space of $26,859,001. This increased flexibility will be crucial in navigating the off-season market. However, this figure does not account for re-signing key restricted free agents (RFAs) or addressing roster holes.  

The significant jump in projected cap space for 2025-26 offers a window of opportunity. Major decisions are pending on high-profile unrestricted free agents (UFAs). There is also a need to re-sign impactful RFAs. This space can be consumed quickly. Strategic allocation will be paramount.

1.2. Key Pending Free Agents

The Maple Leafs face a pivotal off-season with several key players approaching free agency. The decisions made regarding these players will significantly shape the team’s roster and cap flexibility.

Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs): The most prominent UFAs are forwards Mitch Marner and John Tavares. Marner, 28, previously carried a cap hit of $10,903,000, while Tavares, 34, had an $11,000,000 AAV. Other UFAs include forwards Max Pacioretty (previous AAV $874K), Steven Lorentz ($775K), and defenseman Jani Hakanpaa. Pacioretty and Hakanpaa are considered unlikely to be re-signed. Lorentz, known for his physical play, could be a cheap depth option if he returns on a team-friendly deal.  

Restricted Free Agents (RFAs): The most critical RFA is forward Matthew Knies. Knies, 22, has become a vital piece and is expected to be offered a significant contract. The rising salary cap creates a possibility of offer sheets for high-profile RFAs like Knies. Therefore, it is imperative for Toronto to secure his signature promptly. Other RFAs include forwards Nicholas Robertson and Pontus Holmberg. Holmberg is likely to receive an extension. Robertson’s future with the organization is less certain. It may not align with the team’s new “tougher, heavier” direction. AHL RFAs of note include Topi Niemelä, Roni Hirvonen, and Dennis Hildeby, who are likely to receive new deals.  

The futures of Marner and Tavares are the most significant variables. Marner, who reportedly doesn’t enjoy the media scrutiny in Toronto, might seek a fresh start, potentially in a low-tax market. His camp was approached about waiving his no-movement clause (NMC). This was for a potential trade involving Mikko Rantanen. Marner declined this offer at the time. However, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet believes reaching an agreement with Mitch Marner will be very difficult. Negotiations with Marner could pose a significant challenge for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It seems unlikely they will find common ground. A resolution between them seems unlikely. They may struggle to see eye to eye on a deal.
One side really needs to change for an agreement to happen. Chris Johnston of The Athletic also reported a growing sense Marner won’t sign an extension. If Marner hits the open market, he is expected to command a salary of $13 million to $14 million annually. His playoff performance might affect that.  

Tavares has expressed a desire to remain with the Maple Leafs. He is optimistic about a return. However, he would likely need to accept a significant pay cut. He may also need to take a reduced role. A contract in the $5-7 million range for three to four years has been suggested. Some analysts believe he could still command $8-9 million on a shorter term from another team. Pierre LeBrun of TSN indicated Tavares is willing to take a discount. He also noted speculation that Toronto might “lowball” him.  

The decisions on these UFAs and RFAs, particularly Marner, Tavares, and Knies, are crucial. They will dictate the financial resources available for external acquisitions. The departure of one or both high-earning UFAs would create substantial cap space but also significant holes to fill.

1.3. Team Needs & Off-Season Philosophy

General Manager Brad Treliving is steering the Maple Leafs towards a new identity. Head Coach Craig Berube is guiding the team to become “a tougher, heavier, more competitive team that wears down opponents”. This philosophy will heavily influence off-season acquisitions.  

Key needs identified include:

• Top-six Winger: Especially when Marner departs.  
• Second-line Center: Potentially to replace Tavares if he leaves or his role diminishes.  
• Bottom-six Forward Upgrades: To enhance production and grit.  
• Middle-six Puck-Moving Defenseman: Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff highlights this as a critical need. He notes that Morgan Rielly is no longer fulfilling that top puck-moving role effectively. Frank Seravalli echoed the need for “dogs” – players who compete fiercely in tough situations.  

The emphasis on “bite” and physicality suggests a departure from a purely skill-based approach. It aims for a roster better equipped for playoff attrition. Some players might not fit this new mold, such as Nicholas Robertson. Ryan Reaves could potentially be moved out despite his toughness, if Berube doesn’t see him as an NHL regular.  

Part 2: Internal Decisions – Re-signings, Departures, and Buyouts

The Maple Leafs’ front office must address their pending free agents first. This should be done before venturing into the trade and free agent markets. They may have increased input from CEO Keith Pelley and Coach Berube. They need to evaluate the existing roster for players who may not fit the new direction.  

2.1. Re-signing Priorities: Knies, Tavares, and the RFAs

Matthew Knies (RFA): Securing Knies to a long-term deal is a top priority. He fits the desired player profile and is considered a core piece. Elliotte Friedman believes the Leafs will aim to sign him for the longest possible term. His price will likely only increase. A contract in the $7-8 million AAV range has been speculated. The Leafs are expected to match any offer sheet.  

John Tavares (UFA): Tavares has openly stated his desire to return. The Leafs are reportedly optimistic about a deal. It hinges on him accepting a significant pay cut from his previous $11 million AAV. He may also need to accept a potentially reduced role. Negotiations will be crucial. Other teams might offer more for his continued offensive production. He achieved 38 goals and 74 points in the 2024-25 season .  

Other RFAs:

• Pontus Holmberg: Expected to be re-signed to a low-cost deal around $1 million, offering versatile bottom-six play.  
• Nicholas Robertson: His future is uncertain. He previously requested a trade. His skill set may not align with the team’s new emphasis on size and grit. This makes him a potential non-tender or trade candidate.  
• AHL RFAs: Defenseman Topi Niemelä and goaltender Dennis Hildeby are key AHL RFAs. They are likely to receive qualifying offers. They are also expected to get new contracts. Niemelä’s qualifying offer is $813,750, and Hildeby’s is also $813,750. Roni Hirvonen is another AHL RFA expected to be retained.  

2.2. The Marner Dilemma: Re-sign, Trade, or Let Walk?

The situation with Mitch Marner is the most significant internal decision.

• Re-sign: Keeping Marner would retain an elite playmaker. He scored 102 points in 2024-25. However, it would likely cost upwards of $13 million annually. This would severely restrict cap flexibility for addressing other needs. His fit with the “tougher, heavier” philosophy is also a question, and reports suggest he may not want to stay.  
• Trade: If an extension isn’t viable, trading Marner’s rights before he hits free agency could yield significant assets. However, his no-movement clause gives him full control. He previously declined to waive it for a potential Mikko Rantanen trade. Analyst opinions vary. Some believe his value might be higher to teams outside Toronto. They see him thriving in a quieter market.  
• Let Walk: Allowing Marner to leave via free agency would free up his entire $10.903 million cap hit, providing maximum flexibility to pursue other UFAs or trade targets.  

Many analysts, including Elliotte Friedman and Chris Johnston, believe Marner might not re-sign. They cite difficulties in reaching an agreement. They also mention Marner’s potential desire for a change of scenery. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff has suggested “everything should be on the table” for the Leafs. He even questioned Auston Matthews’ long-term future due to playoff performance and chronic injuries. However, a Matthews trade is highly improbable given his recent extension and full NMC. Pierre LeBrun of TSN also believes it’s time to significantly shake up the core. This move should extend beyond just Marner.  

The resolution of Marner’s situation is the linchpin of the Leafs’ off-season strategy. A departure, whether by trade or free agency, would create a substantial offensive void. It would also provide the financial means to aggressively reshape the team according to Treliving and Berube’s vision.

2.3. Potential Buyouts or Salary Dumps

While Morgan Rielly’s name has been mentioned in media speculation due to his $7.5 million AAV and perceived defensive decline, a buyout is highly unlikely. His contract has five years remaining. A buyout would carry cap implications for the next ten years. There would be significant hits in several of those seasons. His NMC also complicates any trade discussions for two more seasons, after which it becomes a 10-team no-trade list.  

Players like Calle Järnkrok ($2.1M AAV through 2025-26) and David Kämpf ($2.4M AAV through 2026-27) are defensively responsible but may lack the “bite” desired. If upgrades are found, they could become trade candidates to free up cap space. Their value in a trade might be limited unless packaged with other assets. Ryan Reaves ($1.35M AAV through 2024-25) is another player in question. His future is uncertain if he’s not seen as an NHL regular under Berube. Max Pacioretty ($874K UFA) and Jani Hakanpaa (UFA) are expected to depart.  

The primary mechanism for creating significant cap space, beyond letting UFAs walk, would be a Marner trade. Minor salary dumps of bottom-six players are possible. However, they won’t fundamentally alter the team’s spending power. The impact is not as much as the Marner decision.

Part 3: Exploring the Trade Market

The Maple Leafs have a clear mandate for change. They also have specific roster needs. The trade market will be a critical avenue for them. However, their ability to make significant moves will be tested by their available assets.

3.1. Acquiring a Top-Six Winger

If Mitch Marner departs, acquiring a top-six winger becomes a pressing need. Even if Marner stays, adding another impactful winger could be considered to bolster the forward group.

• Nikolaj Ehlers (LW, Winnipeg Jets):
  • Contract: UFA after 2024-25, $6M AAV. Has a 10-team no-trade list for 2024-25.  
  • Stats (2024-25): 69 GP, 24 G, 39 A, 63 Pts. Playoffs: 8 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 7 Pts.  
  • Playing Style: Dynamic offensive winger. He is an excellent skater, with speed and acceleration rated 93 by EA Sports. He has strong puck skills, deking at 91 and wrist shot accuracy at 90. He consistently drives play with strong advanced stats. His CF% is 53.3 in 2024-25, with historically strong GF% and xGF%. Can play either wing. Injury history is a concern. 
  • Availability: He was mentioned as a potential Marner replacement. This could happen if he hits UFA status. It may also occur if Winnipeg looks to trade him before he walks. Teammates have expressed a desire for him to stay in Winnipeg.  
  • Fit: Would bring speed, skill, and scoring to the top six. His cap hit is reasonable for his production, but an extension would be costly.
• Brock Boeser (RW, Vancouver Canucks):
  • Contract: UFA after 2024-25, $6.65M AAV.  
  • Stats (2024-25): 75 GP, 25 G, 25 A, 50 Pts. Playoffs:. OfficePools shows 2025 playoff stats. He has 14 goals and 12 assists in 32 games played. This seems to be a cumulative season/playoff tracker and may not be accurate for just playoffs. Provide more detailed 2024-25 regular season game logs. For 2024-25 regular season, he had 25 goals and 25 assists for 50 points in 75 games.  
  • Playing Style: Proven goal scorer with a lethal shot, particularly on the power play. Has worked on his defensive game and consistency. Injury history includes concussions and soft-tissue issues.  
  • Availability: Suggested as a UFA target if Marner leaves. AFP Analytics projects a UFA contract around $8.5M AAV for six years. Reports in April 2025 suggested he was “unlikely” to return to Vancouver.  
  • Fit: Could provide significant goal-scoring punch, especially if Marner’s playmaking is gone.
• Dylan Cozens (C, Ottawa Senators):
  • Contract: Six years remaining after 2024-25 at $7.1M AAV. Has a 5-team no-trade clause starting 2027-2029.  
  • Stats (2024-25 with BUF/OTT): 82 GP (61 BUF, 21 OTT), 16 G, 31 A, 47 Pts. Playoffs (OTT): 6 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 Pts.  
  • Playing Style: Big centerman (6’3″, 207 lbs) who can play a strong two-way game, brings physicality, shooting, and playmaking ability.  
  • Availability: Traded from Buffalo to Ottawa at the 2025 deadline. While listed as a center, he could potentially play wing. Sabres were previously “testing the waters” on him. Ottawa may not be looking to move him so soon after acquiring him unless it’s for a significant return.  
  • Fit: Less of a direct winger replacement, but a young, big, skilled forward with term. Acquiring him would be a major move requiring significant assets.

The viability of trading for a top-six winger hinges on Marner’s status and the assets Toronto is willing to expend. Ehlers and Boeser are more likely UFA targets if they don’t re-sign. However, if they are available via trade, they would command a high price. Cozens represents a longer-term investment but would also be costly.

3.2. Adding a Middle-Six Center

If John Tavares departs or transitions to a lesser role, the trade market could offer solutions. Additionally, if the team seeks an upgrade in the middle-six, it could look for more grit. There could also be a need for two-way capability. The trade market could also provide solutions.

• Brock Nelson (C, Colorado Avalanche):
  • Contract: UFA after 2024-25, $6M AAV.  
  • Stats (2024-25 with NYI/COL): 80 GP, 26 G, 30 A, 56 Pts. Playoffs (COL): 7 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 Pts.  
  • Playing Style: Veteran center, consistent 25+ goal scorer, strong two-way presence.  
  • Availability: Traded from Islanders to Avalanche at the 2025 deadline. If Colorado doesn’t re-sign him, he becomes a top UFA center. Toronto was previously linked as an interested team if he became available from the Islanders.  
  • Fit: Could be an ideal second-line center, providing scoring and responsible play. His age (33) means a shorter-term deal would be preferable.
• Yanni Gourde (C, Seattle Kraken):
  • Contract: UFA after 2024-25, $5.16M AAV.  
  • Playing Style: Two-time Stanley Cup winner, fierce competitor, energy player, can play center or wing.  
  • Availability: Seattle was reportedly listening to offers if they couldn’t extend him. Toronto was linked as an interested team.  
  • Fit: If Tavares leaves and other center targets are too expensive, Gourde could be a trade target. If he is not a UFA, he might also be an UFA signing. Gourde brings playoff pedigree and tenacity.
• Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C, New York Islanders):
  • Contract: One year remaining after 2024-25, $5M AAV. Has a 16-team no-trade list.  
  • Playing Style: Strong two-way center, effective in playoffs.
  • Availability: Islanders were reportedly making him available.  
  • Fit: Could be a solid middle-six option. It is, however, expensive. This is possible if the Islanders retain salary or if the Leafs can fit his cap hit.

The center market offers some intriguing names. This is particularly true if players like Nelson or Gourde become available. They might be available through trade if their teams decide to recoup assets before they hit UFA. Alternatively, they could be available in free agency.

3.3. Trade Bait: What Can the Leafs Offer?

To acquire impact players, the Maple Leafs will need to leverage their trade assets. These assets are somewhat limited in terms of high-end draft capital in the immediate future.

Draft Picks:

• 2025: No 1st-round pick (traded to Chicago, top-10 protected, condition met as Leafs made 2025 playoffs). They possess a 2nd-round pick (acquired from Florida). They have their own 3rd-round pick (acquired via Colorado/Nashville/San Jose). There is no 4th-round pick (traded to Boston as part of the Brandon Carlo deal). They have two 5th-round picks (one acquired from Pittsburgh for Conor Timmins and Connor Dewar). They also have their own 6th and their own 7th.
• 2026: No 1st-round pick (traded to Boston, top-5 protected, for Brandon Carlo ). No 2nd-round pick (traded to Chicago in the McCabe/Lafferty deal ). They own their 3rd-round pick. They have no 4th-round pick (traded to Columbus). They own their own 5th-round pick. They have their a 6th-round pick (acquired from San Jose in the Timothy Liljegren trade). They also have a 7th-round pick (acquired from Dallas for Chris Tanev).  
• 2027: No 1st-round pick (traded to Philadelphia in the Scott Laughton deal ). They possess their own 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, two 6th-round picks (one acquired from Philadelphia ), and their own 7th.  

They lack first and second-round picks in both 2025 and 2026. This significantly curtails their ability to make trades for star players. To make such deals, they would need to include top prospects or roster players. This scarcity might push them towards players with a shorter contract term. They may also target those who fill a specific niche. This approach avoids seeking a complete solution with a young top-pairing. They must be willing to move significant roster pieces or top prospects to do so.

Prospect Pool: The Maple Leafs’ prospect pool was ranked 28th in the NHL. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic provided this ranking in January 2025.  

• Easton Cowan (RW/C): Universally regarded as the Leafs’ top prospect. He possesses a high ceiling and significant trade value, potentially equivalent to a first-round pick. Cowan dominated the OHL with 96 points in 54 games and was named regular season and playoff MVP in 2023-24. He could make the NHL roster as early as next season. Analysts suggest he is a coveted asset in any major trade discussion.  
• Topi Niemelä (RD): An RFA defenseman playing in the AHL. His production dipped in 2024-25 (22 points in 60 AHL games). Once a highly-touted prospect, his trade value may have decreased, but he could still be part of a trade package. His ELC expires, and his qualifying offer is $813,750.  
• Dennis Hildeby (G): An RFA goaltender who appeared in 6 NHL games in 2024-25 (3.33 GAA,.878 SV%). He has potential as an NHL goalie but requires further development. He could be a valuable trade chip for a team seeking a young goaltender. His qualifying offer is $813,750.  
• Roni Hirvonen (C): An RFA forward known for his energy, competitiveness, speed, and two-way play in the AHL.  

Roster Players: The team might change players depending on the overall strategy. Players like Calle Järnkrok or David Kämpf could be included in trades. This is if the team aims to bring in players who better fit the desired “bite” and physicality. Both, however, are defensively responsible. Timothy Liljegren was traded to San Jose and is no longer an asset.  

The most significant trade chip outside the current NHL roster is Easton Cowan. Moving him would signal an “all-in” approach for immediate, high-impact talent. High draft picks are scarce in the next two drafts. As a result, any major trade will almost certainly need to include Cowan. It will require a valuable current roster player. Prospects like Niemelä and Hildeby hold value. However, they are unlikely to be the centerpieces for acquiring a star player on their own.

Table: Potential Trade Targets & Leafs’ Assets

Target Player	Position	Current Team	Age	Contract Status (AAV, Yrs Left)	2024-25 Stats (GP-G-A-P) (Playoffs GP-G-A-P)	Playing Style/Fit	Potential Acquisition Cost (Leafs Assets)
Nikolaj Ehlers	LW	Winnipeg Jets	29	$6M, 1 yr left (UFA 2025)	69-24-39-63 (8-5-2-7)	Dynamic offensive winger, elite skater, strong advanced stats, injury prone	A combination of a 2nd round pick in either 2025 or 2027 is likely. There may also be a prospect involved. Cowan is not included unless it’s part of a larger Marner-related move. More likely a UFA target.
Brock Boeser	RW	Vancouver Canucks	28	$6.65M, 1 yr left (UFA 2025)	75-25-25-50 (Playoff stats inconsistent/unavailable for 2025)	Proven goal scorer, PP specialist, improved two-way game, injury history	Similar to Ehlers, a 2nd/3rd round pick + prospect if via trade. More likely a UFA target. Projected $8.5M AAV as UFA.

This table highlights a challenge for the Leafs. Acquiring impact talent will be costly. It will require their best prospect or future high draft picks. They largely lack these in the near term. This makes astute free agent signings even more critical.

Part 4: Navigating Free Agency: Strategic Signings

Significant cap space may open up, especially if Mitch Marner and/or John Tavares depart. The 2025 UFA market presents opportunities for the Maple Leafs. They can address key needs and inject the desired grit and playoff experience into the lineup. The NHL salary cap for 2025-26 is projected at $95.5 million.  

4.1. Top UFA Forwards: Adding Skill and Grit

The departure of Marner would necessitate a high-impact offensive replacement. Even with Marner, adding forwards who embody the “tougher, heavier, meaner” philosophy is a priority.  

• Nikolaj Ehlers (LW, Winnipeg Jets): (Also a trade target, see section 3.2.1)
  • If he reaches UFA status, Ehlers would be one of the premier wingers available. He is 29 years old. His previous AAV was $6M. In 2024-25, he recorded 63 points (24 goals, 39 assists) in 69 regular-season games. He also added 7 points (5 goals, 2 assists) in 8 playoff games. His dynamic skating, offensive creativity, and strong underlying numbers (CF% 53.3% in 2024-25) make him an attractive, albeit expensive, option. His injury history remains a consideration.  
• Brock Boeser (RW, Vancouver Canucks): (Also a trade target, see section 3.2.2)
  • Boeser (28 years old, previous AAV $6.65M ) is another high-skill winger potentially hitting the market. He scored 25 goals and 50 points in 75 games during the 2024-25 regular season. Known for his potent shot, he could command around $8.5M AAV as a UFA.  
• Sam Bennett (C/LW, Florida Panthers):
  • Bennett (28 years old, previous AAV $4.425M ) is a prime target embodying the desired shift in team identity. He posted 51 points in 76 regular-season games. These included 25 goals and 26 assists. He was impactful in the playoffs with 9 points in 12 games. This included 6 goals and 3 assists. Known as “Playoff Sam,” he is physical, hard on the puck, and difficult to play against. His faceoff percentage was 46.2% in 2024-25. Analyst Justin Bourne cautioned against a long-term deal due to his physical style. Meanwhile, Frank Seravalli identified him as the type of “dog” the Leafs need. He could be looking at a contract around $8M on the open market.  
• Brad Marchand (LW, Florida Panthers):
  • At 37, Marchand (previous AAV $6.125M ) offers a short-term, high-impact option. He recorded 23 goals and 51 points in the 2024-25 season. An agitator with elite skill and Stanley Cup experience, he could command a 2-3 year deal. He has been suggested as a target if the Leafs are in a “win-now” mode, bringing the “bite” they covet.  
• Jonathan Drouin (LW/RW, Colorado Avalanche):
  • Drouin is 30 years old. His previous AAV was $2.5M. He had 37 points (11 goals, 26 assists) in a 43-game season in 2024-25, which was shortened due to injury. He often played a top-six role alongside Nathan MacKinnon. He’s a skilled playmaker, but his injury history is a significant concern. He could be a value signing for top-six depth if he can stay healthy.  
• Ryan Donato (LW/C, Chicago Blackhawks):
  • Donato, 29 years old and with a previous AAV of $2M, had a breakout 2024-25 season. He scored 62 points, with 31 goals and 31 assists, in 80 games for a struggling Blackhawks team. His versatility, energy, and unexpected production make him an intriguing value option for middle-six scoring depth, though his 17.0% shooting percentage suggests some regression is possible.  
• Pius Suter (C/LW, Vancouver Canucks):
  • Suter (29 years old, previous AAV $1.6M ) registered 46 points (25 goals, 21 assists) in 81 games in 2024-25. He is a smart, two-way forward. He can play center or wing. He contributes offensively while being defensively responsible. Often, he plays against top competition. He is projected to earn around $3.93M AAV on his next contract and could be an excellent value signing for the middle-six.  
• Yanni Gourde (C, Seattle Kraken/Tampa Bay Lightning per sources):
  • Gourde (33 years old, previous AAV $5.16M ) is a two-time Stanley Cup champion known for his fierce competitiveness and energy. If Tavares departs, and if other center options are too costly, Gourde could step in. He could provide veteran leadership. His tenacity would serve well in a 2C or 3C role.  

The UFA forward market offers a mix of high-end skill, such as Ehlers and Boeser. It also includes gritty, impactful veterans like Bennett, Marchand, and Gourde. Additionally, there are potential value signings, including Donato, Suter, and Drouin. The Leafs’ choices will depend heavily on the cap space available after making Marner and Tavares decisions. They must also prioritize between skill and the “tougher to play against” mantra.

4.2. Goaltending Situation

The Maple Leafs appear to be set in goal for the 2025-26 season. Joseph Woll is under contract with an AAV of $3.667 million through 2025-26. Anthony Stolarz also has a year remaining at a $2.5 million AAV. Prospect Dennis Hildeby is an RFA and provides depth.  

Both Woll and Stolarz are under contract at reasonable cap hits. Stolarz was noted for his efficiency when healthy. Therefore, major UFA goalie acquisitions are highly unlikely. Resources will almost certainly be prioritized for skater positions.  

Table: Potential UFA Targets

Target Player	Position	Previous Team	Age	Previous AAV	2024-25 Stats (GP-G-A-P) (Playoffs GP-G-A-P)	Playing Style/Fit	Projected Contract (AAV/Term if available)
Nikolaj Ehlers	LW	Winnipeg Jets	29	$6.0M	69-24-39-63 (RS) , 8-5-2-7 (PO)	Dynamic offensive winger, elite skater, strong advanced stats, injury prone	Likely $8M+ AAV, long-term
Brock Boeser	RW	Vancouver Canucks	28	$6.65M	75-25-25-50 (RS) (Playoff stats unclear for 2025)	Proven goal scorer, PP specialist, improved two-way game	~$8.5M AAV x 6 yrs
Sam Bennett	C/LW	Florida Panthers	28	$4.425M	76-25-26-51 (RS) , 12-6-3-9 (PO)	Physical, “Playoff Sam,” gritty, good faceoffs historically	~$8M AAV , term debated due to style
Brad Marchand	LW	Florida Panthers	37	$6.125M	RS: 23G, 51P	Agitator with elite skill, playoff performer, Cup winner	Short-term (2-3 yrs), high AAV
Jonathan Drouin	LW/RW	Colorado Avalanche	30	$2.5M	43-11-26-37 (RS)	Skilled playmaker, injury history, chemistry with top talent	Value contract, likely short-term
Ryan Donato	LW/C	Chicago Blackhawks	29	$2.0M	80-31-31-62 (RS)	Versatile, energetic, breakout scorer, potential regression	Mid-range AAV, term uncertain
Pius Suter	C/LW	Vancouver Canucks	29	$1.6M	81-25-21-46 (RS)	Smart two-way C/W, responsible, secondary scoring	~$3.93M AAV x 4 yrs
Yanni Gourde	C	Seattle Kraken	33	$5.16M	(Stats for 24-25 not specified, but prior production noted)	Two-time Cup winner, fierce competitor, energy C/W	Mid-range AAV, shorter term due to age

The UFA market presents a mix of high-cost, high-reward options and valuable depth pieces. The Leafs’ ability to engage with top-tier UFAs will depend on the cap space they create. This space is created by internal decisions, especially those concerning Mitch Marner.

Part 5: Crafting the 2025-26 Roster: A Blueprint for Contention

The Toronto Maple Leafs stand at a pivotal off-season. They are armed with significant cap space for 2025-26. The team faces crucial decisions on core players. There is a clear mandate to build a team embodying toughness and playoff resilience. The path forward requires a blend of bold moves and shrewd asset management.  

5.1. Synthesizing the Moves: Potential Roster Scenarios

The off-season strategy is a complex puzzle with the future of Mitch Marner as its central piece. His decision, or the team’s decision on him, will be the first major domino to fall, dictating subsequent moves.

Scenario A: Marner Re-signs If Marner re-signs, it is likely at an AAV exceeding $13 million. The Leafs would then retain an elite playmaker. However, this significantly constrains their ability to address other major needs. In particular, adding substantial gritty forward depth is difficult without moving other significant salaries. John Tavares re-signing at a reduced rate (e.g., $5-7M) would still leave limited room for major external additions beyond re-signing Matthew Knies. The team would likely rely on internal promotions. They would value UFA signings for depth roles. Perhaps a mid-tier trade could incrementally improve the team. This scenario makes it challenging to enact the sweeping philosophical change towards a “tougher, heavier” team. Marner must fully buy into and adapt to that style. Alternatively, other core pieces would need to be unexpectedly moved.  

Scenario B: Marner Departs (Trade or UFA) Marner’s departure, freeing up his $10.903 million cap hit , creates transformative possibilities. This newfound space could be allocated in several ways:  

1. Targeting Two High-Impact UFAs: The Leafs could pursue a top-six winger replacement. They could target players like Nikolaj Ehlers (if UFA) or Brock Boeser. Additionally, they might make a strong bid for a defenseman like Aaron Ekblad, absorbing his $7.5M+ AAV despite the risks.  
2. One Star Acquisition and Depth: Sign one marquee UFA. This could be someone like Sam Bennett at a projected $8M to be the 2C and bring grit. Use the remaining space to acquire a solid RHD via trade. It could be someone like Rasmus Andersson, though costly in assets. Alternatively, sign multiple quality depth forwards. Options include Ryan Donato or Pius Suter, and a serviceable defenseman.  
3. Trade-Focused Approach: Use the cap space to absorb salary in a trade for an impact player. Look for a player with term, potentially a younger RHD or a power forward. This player should fit the Berube mold, even if it means parting with Easton Cowan.  

If Tavares also departs, an additional $11 million (his previous AAV) would be available. This further amplifies the team’s ability to overhaul the roster. However, this would also mean replacing two top-six forwards. If Tavares re-signs at a lower number in this scenario, it provides a veteran presence. This still allows for significant external additions.

The organization must assess if the “stars and scrubs” approach should continue. This strategy has yielded limited playoff success. Alternatively, a more balanced, deep roster with players fitting the new “tougher, heavier, meaner” identity might be the preferred path. The latter seems more aligned with current leadership’s stated goals.  

5.2. Balancing Skill, Grit, and the Salary Cap

The new philosophy under Treliving and Berube emphasizes a shift towards a team that is harder to play against. The focus is especially on the playoffs. This doesn’t mean abandoning skill. Auston Matthews and William Nylander remain foundational pieces. Instead, it involves supplementing skill with players who bring a physical edge and relentless competitiveness. These players also offer playoff-proven tenacity.  

Players like Sam Bennett, if acquired, would epitomize this shift. However, the challenge lies in adding such elements without overpaying. It is also important not to sacrifice too much of the offensive dynamism that has characterized the Leafs. The contracts of Matthews ($13.25M AAV), Nylander ($11.5M AAV), and Morgan Rielly ($7.5M AAV) already consume a significant portion of the cap. Adding another high-priced UFA like Marner, or multiple other highly-paid players, requires astute management of depth contracts.  

Value signings for the bottom six and defensive depth will be crucial. Players like Steven Lorentz, if re-signed cheaply, could provide essential contributions. UFA targets like Ryan Donato or Pius Suter on reasonable deals could also help without crippling the cap structure. The balancing act involves finding players who bring the desired “bite.” They must also contribute positively to puck possession and scoring. This avoids a scenario where the team becomes overly reliant on physicality at the expense of skill. The risk is overcommitting to “grit” and ending up with an expensive, less talented roster that still falls short.  

5.3. The Prospect Pipeline and Draft Capital Outlook

The Maple Leafs’ prospect pool is not considered among the league’s elite. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic ranked them 28th in early 2025. The lack of first and second-round draft picks in 2025 and 2026 compounds the problem. This means the team has limited high-end assets. They are unable to acquire young, cost-controlled talent or to quickly restock the system.  

Key Prospect Assets:

• Easton Cowan (RW/C): The clear top prospect, Cowan is nearing NHL-readiness and possesses significant trade value. His development and potential NHL debut will be closely watched. He is the most likely prospect to be included if the Leafs make a blockbuster trade.  
• Dennis Hildeby (G): An RFA goalie prospect who has shown promise in the AHL and had a brief NHL stint. He represents a tradeable asset for teams needing goaltending depth or a future starter.  
• Topi Niemelä (RD): An RFA AHL defenseman whose stock may have plateaued but could still hold some trade value.  

The current state of their prospect pipeline and draft capital necessitates a “win-now” approach. They cannot afford to miss on their NHL-level acquisitions. They also cannot trade away their few valuable prospects without securing immediate, substantial upgrades. This reality puts immense pressure on Treliving’s ability to identify and acquire the right players via trade and free agency. Further mortgaging the future by trading more high draft picks from 2027 onwards would be a risky strategy. This is especially true if significant playoff success isn’t achieved quickly.

5.4. Final Recommendations & Off-Season Outlook

The Toronto Maple Leafs are at a franchise-defining crossroads. The summer of 2025 demands bold decisions. There must also be a clear commitment to the new roster philosophy championed by Treliving and Berube.

Recommendations:

1. Resolve the Mitch Marner Situation Decisively: The most impactful path forward likely involves trading Mitch Marner’s negotiating rights. While an elite talent, he reportedly shows reluctance for a team-friendly extension. His fit within the new “tougher” identity is uncertain. Moreover, the substantial cap space his departure would create ($10.903M) makes this the most logical catalyst for a meaningful roster overhaul. A sign-and-trade could maximize return, but even letting him walk to UFA provides the flexibility needed. This move offers a diversified approach. It addresses multiple needs. It avoids concentrating a large portion of the cap on a player whose playoff performances have come under scrutiny.  
2. Secure Matthew Knies: Sign Knies to a long-term extension as a foundational piece of the “new look” Leafs.  
3. Reinvest Cap Space in Grit and Balanced Scoring:
   • Center: If Tavares re-signs at a significantly reduced cap hit (e.g., $5-6M ), he can still contribute. If not, or if a more physical presence is desired, target Sam Bennett as a UFA. His playoff intensity aligns perfectly with Berube’s system. Alternatively, Pius Suter offers a highly valuable two-way option at a lower projected cost.  
   • Wing: If Marner departs, focus on getting a scoring winger. This could be someone like Nikolaj Ehlers or Brock Boeser in free agency. If they become available, explore trade options for wingers who bring both skill and tenacity. Value options like Ryan Donato could provide surprising depth scoring.  
4. Utilize Prospect Depth Wisely: Beyond Cowan, prospects like Hildeby and Niemelä should be leveraged in trades to acquire NHL-ready talent. They can also be used to facilitate cap-clearing moves. This approach is more advantageous than holding onto them. Their paths to the Leafs’ roster might be blocked or may not align with the new direction.

Outlook: The Toronto Maple Leafs have the cap space. With a Marner move, they have the opportunity to significantly reshape their roster in the 2025 off-season. Brad Treliving has the challenge to execute this vision effectively. He must balance the need for immediate improvement with long-term sustainability. The pressure to deliver tangible playoff success is immense. This off-season will clearly show whether the organization can finally build a team capable of contending for the Stanley Cup. The path chosen will undoubtedly be transformative. It will mark either the dawn of a new era of contention. It could also mean another chapter of frustrating “what ifs.”