The Toronto Maple Leafs are entering a crucial period. Two of their star players, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, are approaching free agency. Both contracts expire on July 1st, presenting the Leafs with some significant decisions. Let’s explore the potential contract extension scenarios for these pivotal players. We will also discuss how their decisions could impact the Leafs’ future.

The Leafs are currently second in the Atlantic Division with a record of 33-20-2 and 68 points. Their performance this season and their Stanley Cup aspirations will undoubtedly influence the negotiations with Marner and Tavares.  

The Rising Salary Cap and its Impact on the Leafs

Before diving into the specifics of each player’s situation, it’s essential to understand the evolving NHL salary cap landscape. The cap, currently set at $88 million, is projected to increase significantly over the next few seasons. This rise has significant implications for the Leafs as they navigate contract negotiations with their star players.  

Season	Salary Cap
2024-25	$88 million
2025-26	$95.5 million
2026-27	$104 million
2027-28	$113.5 million

These projections suggest a substantial increase in available funds for teams, potentially influencing player salaries and contract negotiations. For the Leafs, this means more flexibility to retain their core players. However, it also means potentially higher asking prices from Marner and Tavares. 

Leafs Current Roster and Cap Situation

The Leafs’ current roster boasts a mix of established stars and promising young talent. Here’s a look at some of their key players and their cap hits:  

Player	Position	Cap Hit
Auston Matthews	Center	$13,250,000
William Nylander	Right Wing	$11,500,000
Mitch Marner	Right Wing	$10,903,000
John Tavares	Center	$11,000,000
Morgan Rielly	Defense	$7,500,000

The Leafs’ total cap hit for the 2024-25 season is $93,037,314, ranking them fifth in the league. With a tight salary cap, the Leafs face the challenge of re-signing their key players while maintaining a competitive roster.  

Under the new salary cap estimates, the Leafs project to have $28.8 million in free cap space for 2025-26, $46.4 million in 2026-27, and $61.3 million in 2027-28. This provides them with some breathing room. However, re-signing both Marner and Tavares at their desired salaries could still be a challenge.  

Mitch Marner: Setting the Stage for a Big Payday

Mitch Marner, the electrifying winger, is in the final year of his six-year, $65.4 million contract, with a cap hit of $10.9 million. He’s been a driving force for the Leafs’ offense, consistently putting up impressive numbers. This season, he has 68 points in 50 games, showcasing his offensive prowess and playmaking abilities.  

Marner’s Current Contract and Potential AAV

Marner’s current contract includes a $60,958,000 signing bonus and $65,418,000 guaranteed. His base salary for the 2024-25 season is $750,000, with a signing bonus of $7,250,000. However, with the projected rise in the salary cap, Marner is poised to command a significant raise.  

NHL analyst Steve Dangle predicts Marner could sign a max-term deal. The contract might be eight years long and worth $128 million. It could have an AAV of $16 million. This projection considers the rising cap and Marner’s desire to stay in Toronto. However, the Leafs have reportedly set a maximum offer of $13 million AAV for Marner. This suggests they are aiming to maintain a salary structure where Matthews remains the highest-paid player.  

Comparable Contracts and Leafs’ Internal Cap

To assess Marner’s potential contract, it’s crucial to examine comparable contracts for other top NHL forwards. Players like Artemi Panarin ($11.6 million AAV) and David Pastrnak ($11.2 million AAV) provide a benchmark. However, the Leafs appear to be operating under an internal cap, with Matthews’ $13.25 million AAV setting the ceiling.  

This internal cap could significantly impact negotiations with both Marner and Tavares. It suggests a potential limit on the Leafs’ willingness to spend on a single player. This holds true regardless of their performance or market value.  

Term Length and Marner’s Options

While the AAV is a critical factor, the term length is equally important. A five-year deal would take Marner to age 32, allowing him to potentially sign another lucrative contract. However, he could consider a shorter-term deal. A three-year contract might align with Matthews’ contract expiration. This could maximize his earnings over shorter periods.  

Marner’s No-Trade Clause and Potential for Deferred Money

Marner has a full no-trade clause, giving him significant leverage in negotiations. He can dictate where he wants to play. This makes it difficult for the Leafs to trade him. They face challenges if they can’t reach an agreement on an extension.  

Furthermore, the Leafs could explore using deferred money in Marner’s contract, similar to how they structured Jake McCabe’s extension. This mechanism could provide the Leafs with more cap flexibility in the coming years.  

Predictions and Potential Impact on the Leafs

Marner’s performance has been outstanding. With the rising salary cap and his no-trade clause, it seems likely he will command an AAV exceeding $13 million. His performance has been exceptional. The rising salary cap and his no-trade clause strengthen his negotiating power. He is in a strong negotiating position. Whether he opts for a long-term deal or a shorter one remains to be seen. His contract will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the Leafs’ salary cap situation. It will also affect their ability to make other roster moves.  

If Marner reaches free agency, other teams will undoubtedly be interested in acquiring his services. This could lead to an offer sheet or a bidding war, potentially driving up his price even further.  

John Tavares: Navigating the Later Stages of his Career

John Tavares, the former Leafs’ captain, is in the last year of his seven-year contract. This contract totals $77 million. It includes an $11 million AAV. While he’s no longer the captain, he remains a vital part of the Leafs’ core and a consistent contributor.  

Tavares’ Current Contract and Potential AAV

Tavares’ current contract includes a $70,890,000 signing bonus and is fully guaranteed. His base salary for the 2024-25 season is $910,000, with a signing bonus of $7,040,000. However, at 34 years old, he’s likely entering the latter stages of his career, which could impact his next contract.  

Despite his age, Tavares has been performing well this season, with 45 points in 47 games. However, most experts believe he will take a pay cut on his next deal. Kevin McGran of The Toronto Star suggests Tavares could sign for around $8 million AAV, considering the rising salary cap.  

Term Length, Tavares’ Priorities, and Potential for a Buyout

Tavares has expressed his desire to remain in Toronto. Given his age, a shorter-term deal, perhaps two or three years, seems most likely. There could be deferred money payments in his next contract. He might also receive performance bonuses. He is planning for his retirement.  

However, if the Leafs can’t reach an agreement with Tavares on an extension, they could explore buying out his contract. This decision would provide them with some cap relief. However, it would also come with financial implications. It could potentially affect their long-term cap situation.  

Predictions and Potential Impact on the Leafs

It seems likely Tavares will re-sign with the Leafs at a lower AAV than his current contract. A shorter-term deal with deferred payments could be a win-win for both sides. It would allow Tavares to stay in Toronto. This arrangement provides the Leafs with some cap flexibility.

However, Tavares’ age could become a factor in the coming years. A decline in his performance could make a long-term contract less desirable for the Leafs.  

The Leafs’ Salary Cap Crunch and Potential Scenarios

The Leafs are currently operating with a tight salary cap. With Marner and Tavares’ contracts expiring, they have some challenging decisions to make. The projected increase in the salary cap provides some relief. However, re-signing both players at their desired salaries could still pose a challenge.  

Hometown Discounts and Trade Possibilities

One scenario is that both Marner and Tavares take hometown discounts to stay in Toronto. This would allow the Leafs to retain their core players while having more cap space to address other roster needs. However, it remains to be seen if either player is willing to leave significant money on the table.

Another possibility is that the Leafs explore trades to create cap space. Trading a player who has a significant cap hit could help free up funds. For example, releasing someone like David Kampf might allow them to re-sign Marner and Tavares. However, this could involve parting with valuable assets and potentially weakening the team’s overall depth.  

Balancing Priorities, Building a Contender, and Attracting Free Agents

The Leafs’ front office faces a delicate balancing act. They must make decisions to address the immediate need to re-sign Marner and Tavares. They also need to consider the long-term implications for the team’s salary cap and roster construction.

Re-signing Marner and Tavares to lucrative long-term contracts could limit the Leafs’ ability to re-sign other players. This includes players like Matthew Knies. It could also hinder significant additions via free agency. It could also affect their ability to attract and sign other free agents in the future. Players might be hesitant to join a team with limited cap space.  

Ultimately, the Leafs’ success hinges on their ability to build a competitive team around their core players. Whether they can achieve this while navigating the complexities of the salary cap and contract negotiations remains to be seen.

Conclusion: A Defining Off-season for the Leafs

The upcoming off-season will be a defining one for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The decisions they make regarding Marner and Tavares’ contracts will have a significant impact on the team’s future. Re-signing both players would be a major coup, but it could come at a cost.  

The Leafs need to carefully weigh their options and make strategic decisions that position them for long-term success. They need to consider the potential long-term consequences of signing Marner and Tavares to high-value contracts. Their age and potential decline in performance are especially important factors.

The most likely scenario appears to be Marner signing a long-term contract. His AAV would exceed $13 million. Meanwhile, Tavares re-signs on a shorter-term deal with a lower AAV. However, the Leafs’ willingness to make trades and the players’ willingness to accept hometown discounts could significantly alter these scenarios.

The Leafs need to manage their cap space effectively to contend for the Stanley Cup in the coming years. They must also build a well-rounded roster. The decisions they make this off-season will be crucial in determining their future success.

Player	Current AAV	Current Cap Hit	Potential AAV Range	Potential Term Range	Key Factors
Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	$10,903,000	$13,000,000 – $16,000,000	5-8 years	Performance, rising cap, no-trade clause, potential for deferred money
John Tavares	$11,000,000	$11,000,000	$6,500,000 – $8,000,000	2-3 years	Age, performance, desire to stay in Toronto, potential for deferred money and performance bonuses, potential for a buyout